Back in Time: My Original Twitter Bull Case from 2017

Back on May 14th, 2017, with shares of TWTR trading in the mid-teens, I sent out the following video to VIP clients inside Market Chess Subscription Services explaining my rationale for investing in the name. I have held ever since. With the stock printing in the low-$70s this morning within a stone's throw of its post-IPO all-time highs from 2014) I am tempted to sell.

However, I am going to keep holding TWTR for now, a topic I will discuss with VIP Members soon enough. I have updated the TWTR bull thesis on this website quite a few times over the years, even when it felt foolish to do so as the stock crated by 20% at times and the executives made decisions which defied logic. 

Of course, I have plenty of duds, too, or simply names which do not pan out anything like TWTR did from an investing standpoint. And I recognize the recent market frenzy has warped many markets players' expectations as far as stocks increasing two, three, or even tenfold in a uniquely short period of time.

But when this moment in the market eventually passes, there is still a place for value investing for the long run. And while TWTR was universally mocked back in 2017 even by traditional value investors, I was basically employing a contrarian sentiment approach on this name, anyway--Basically, I held my nose and bought it, then I held my nose and, well, kept holding it in spite of various management mishaps over the years. 

At this point, I would not be surprised to see TWTR eventually trade above $100. Of course, the broad market action will likely have a say in it. Naturally, with a $57 billion market now, the outside shot at a massive buyout is probably off the table, although who knows in this type of market. 

But the original thesis still holds true: TWTR is a winning platform in spite of its managerial errors, not because of it. And sentiment was way too dour back in 2017 to not take a shot that Twitter's platform would continue to be a unique corner of social media for the foreseeable future; love it, hate it, or are just plain annoyed by it.