Stiff Resistance Requires a Stiff Drink

Despite some positive earnings reactions from CMG MSFT V, the market has struggled to build on opening gains. In fact, we flipped red earlier, although look to be back in the green on the indices as I write this. 

Still, the QQQ ETF for the Nasdaq's top 100 stocks, below on the updated daily chart, shows the $322 actually acting as stiff resistance into the bounce, even though many argue the chart shows clear support at the prior winter lows.

However, as we have discussed both here and with Members, bear markets slide down a slope of hope, which means support often fails. This is, at its core, one of the main differences from a technical perspective between a bull and bear regime. Hence, I expect support to fail, despite (or perhaps because of) the plethora of hopeful bounces we have witnessed which do not seem to garner the type of sustainability bulls enjoyed so many times since 2020, if not 2009. 

Elsewhere, the U.S. Dollar is essentially going parabolic at this point versus other currency pairs around the world. This ought not be overlooked as a risk to the global markets, given the potential to disrupt financial risk models everywhere. 

Overall, should markets flip red again today I suspect dip-buyers will finally begin to hit some panic buttons and step aside. If this is 2008, it could happen sooner than later. But other bear markets, like 2000-2003, were much more drawn out, which means it could be a long slog ahead for all of us.