Distrustful of Eastern Promises

It looks like we will wind up with a red session today, coming off the holiday break. However, I am still inclined to think this bear market rally has some business above to really get people thinking the worst is over once and for all (I do not share that view). 

In the meantime, wheat is getting sold hard today as a headline hit that the U.N. had made progress int talks with Russia on facilitating grain exports. We have heard this song and dance before, however, and I am distrustful of promises of this nature. 

Also note this is the Wheat Fund's first 200-day moving average precise test by price (below on WEAT daily chart, yellow line) since the entire Russia/Ukraine war blew up over the winter and wheat responded in kind with a monstrous breakout. 

In other words, this 200-day test is entirely normal in the context of a powerful bullish trend. 

The presumption is dips get bought, as supply constraints overall are still a menace to global wheat prices. 

You will also note how jittery bulls become into every commodity-oriented pullback. They may be correct but let's be frank: There is no, and I mean no, shortage of top-callers in the oil and grain complex right now.