Next Stop in Doubt

The NFLX and ISRG earnings rallies today are being countered by continued strength in the U.S. Dollar as well as rates pushing higher yet above 4% on the 10-Year Note. As you would expect, the latter two are pressuring equities and risk-on vibes altogether. 

That said, oil is marginally higher and, perhaps more significantly, energy stocks are showing impressive resilience in the face of a plethora of reasons to sell off. The OIH XLE XOP energy sector ETFs are up anywhere from 1-3% as I write this, soundly outpacing just above all other sectors today. 

As we noted yesterday when commodity stocks outperform the underlying commodity, especially when there are glaringly bearish excuses to dump (SPR drainage, slowing economic growth, etc., rising rates, higher Dollar, etc.) it tends to be a bullish setup worth noting. The technicals for the OIH XLE XOP are impressive, including refinery stocks like Valero, below on the updated daily chart. 

Thus, as the earnings hits keep on coming with TSLA this evening I am still keeping close tabs on whether oil stocks can hold this strength and build on it in the face of adversity. 

Other than that, I am treading extremely carefully in terms of keeping cash levels very high and not blasting back into the market all at once.