Real Talk for the New Year

While from far perfect, we hit some major issues correctly in 2022. That said, I find it rather uncouth to constantly harp on one's good calls, especially when anyone with half a brain knows that speculation is a fine mess full of constant blunders--The key is to mitigate the risk and take professional measures to refocus. 

In addition, I would find it rather mundane to dedicate a website to constant self-aggrandizement. 

Thus, we follow-up on our analysis but do not linger too much on it, focusing on the here and now instead. 

One misplaced call I made was my June 2022 blog post here where I wrote that one of the major publicly-traded cruise lines would declare bankruptcy by the end of the year. 

That did not happen, as CCL NCLH RCLH are still trading of course.

At issue now is whether the call was flat-out wrong or instead early by a few quarters. 

To my eye, CCL, below on the daily, is still the most vulnerable cruise line for a variety of fundamental and technical reasons. As far as macro is concerned I expect the middle class cruisers who frequent CCL more than the other cruise lines will be hit harder in the pocketbook due to inflation, higher rates, and an economic recession. I also think they tapped out a good deal over the holidays and are in for some serious belt-tightening. 

All of this adds up to far less customers for CCL, in a debt-ridden, capital intensive business. 

So, no, I am not backing off my original call. I think the cruise lines remain in serious trouble and that should come home to roost in 2023 as this slow-moving bear market begins to pick up the pace to the downside.