This is Not a Return to Decadence

A funny thing about folks getting a taste of the good life, to speak, in markets since March 2020 (and even at various intervals since 2009) is that they will seemingly do anything to go back to the go-go-days, even if it means completely distorting reality. To put it crudely, you might argue it is not unlike a drug fiend willing to do anything for another hit.

Case in point: Recent macro data points suggest a slowing economy to the point where bulls are pining for an elusive Fed pivot back to QE/ZIRP which, ironically, is not going to happen unless and until we first have an epic crash in markets. 

But right now bulls do not want to hear that--They simply want their return to decadence. 

Apart from just two equity-related shorts I am personally keeping most of my powder dry and waiting for all of these rally attempts to burn themselves out. As we have noted with Members, I have a high degree of conviction that we are not starting a brand new bull market anytime soon, at least not until we see some bonafide capitulation lower first. In other words, my firm belief is that this is not a return to decadence. 

One play I have been waiting on seemingly forever is a Costco short. 

I believe COST has topped out long-term, and I have a high degree of conviction here, too. The stock is popping today on December sales, which I believe to be their last good number for a while. 

On the daily chart, below, a move just a bit higher to the 50-day moving average (dark blue line, arrow) should be a sound short entry for me (finally).