23Mar10:34 amEST

Winter or Spring for Oil?

The calendar may have flipped to springtime, but with respect to crude oil's recent descending triangle bearish breakdown (seen below on USO ETF daily chart, which we previously highlighted in real-time both here and with Members) the issue is whether it is still just the beginning of winter for oil or not. 

$62/$63 was our key breakdown level, and as this market loves to do in recent quarters virtually across the board, we are retesting that zone as we speak with a bounce. 

Failure here, with a move back below $60, has me looking at the SCO bear ETF for crude as a way to short (via going long that bearish ETF), as it would be a textbook bear retest and follow-through lower in light of the recent breakdown. 

Also note all three major energy ETFs, OIH XLE XOP, are below their 200-day moving averages. 

Oil bulls argue this is a massive bear trap before another rally higher due to inflation. And while I am open to that scenario, my preferred way to play that is via short Treasuries, betting straight up on higher rates. 

Longer-term, I still think energy is a new bull market leader and outperforms NVDA and company easily--I just do not think we are there yet. 

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