Sugar Coated Rally Mountains

The great sugar bull market continues, as illustrated by the thinly-traded SGG ETN monthly chart pruning fresh highs, below. With sugar on a tear it is tough to see inflation collapsing anytime soon, especially given the ubiquity of sugar in the modern American lifestyle. 

But as we wind down the first quarter of trading that has not yet deterred equity bulls--The resilience took me by surprise but has not changed my long-term view that we remain in an overall bear market.

Looking out to Q2, I am looking for all the flaw of this rally and the bull case to at least slow things down even if the fireworks lower do not kick in until later in the year. Specifically, the poor breadth, low volume, higher rates, still-tightening Fed, and a myriad of other headwinds including a likely recession coming later this year.

But back to sugar, I would think the strength in SGG eventually negatively impacts confectioners like HSY TR, for example, if not KO and PEP.