27Jun11:12 amEST

It's Pretty; It's So Pretty

Consider this another friendly reminder of an attractive pattern in a critical asset class, with few eyes on said pattern.

The updated monthly chart (below) for TNX, the Index for Rates on the 10-year ("40" equates to 4% on this Index, for example) shows us a beautiful multi-month bull flag which continues to fly well under-the-radar of folks who either do not care about it or are intentionally overlooking it as it stands in stark contrast to their view on rates. 
I recognize it is difficult for the majority of Wall Street veterans to accept that this pattern can resolve much higher--After all, for most or all of their careers since the early-1980s rates have done nothing but steadily move lower in a genuine era of disinflation.

But what if inflation is just now surging back higher?

What if this morning's potent durable goods orders help to compel the next FOMC in July to raise rates after June's pause? 

"Higher (rates) for longer" eventually will crack stocks, and hard, as the system which thrived during QE/ZIRP simply cannot withstand higher rates for any meaningful period of time.

And now it is happening just as sentiment has almost fully flipped into the camp that higher rates are just fine and dandy... 

Holy Meta Gap Man, Zuck It All Comes Down to Apple, ...

 
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