A Dreary Landing, One Way or the Other

On this post-FOMC/Powell presser squeeze, it appears as though the S&P 500 Index, below on the updated daily chart, has a rendezvous with its 200-day simple moving average (yellow line, arrow), testing it from the underside. The Nasdaq is the leader of today's move, while small caps lag behind.

While the market cheers Powell playing both sides of the issues, leaving open a future hike but also talking about current tighter financial conditions potentially having a negative impact, I still strongly suspect he is setting up The Fed for a larger monetary error into 2024. 

For all of the talk of a hard versus soft landing, even a "no landing" scenario, I see a dreary landing, one way or the other, coming to the economy and markets in due time. 

Apple earnings tomorrow evening figure to now come into focus, followed by the jobs report on Friday. With the S&P now up about 150 handles since last Friday's lows, it will be interesting to see if AAPL and the jobs numbers can beat expectations, or at least come in line. A miss by AAPL, for example, could easily shock markets in a way we have not see in a good while. 

For now, rates are down and stocks are up as Powell would much rather keep the peace in markets in the near-term, even if he is setting up for a much bigger disaster down the road. 

Still, I am keying off this 200-day on the S&P. Testing it from the underside is typically a good short setup in a bear market, if nothing else.