I Want My Deflationary Steak!

I have been holding my bond short (via long the TBT ETF) for what seems like a decade or two. So, the silver lining to this morning's rally in bonds and selloff in rates off the cool CPI print is that I still have some modest profit cushion on the position. However, rates, homebuilders, small caps, and banks are all rallying on the move in rates, some of them quite sharply. 

Thus, the price action into this afternoon should be telling for me and how I proceed from here, insofar as perhaps backing away from the view of higher rates. I still think inflation is the nemesis longer-term, but recent CPI prints all seem to always be about 0.1% on the cool side. If so, I want my steak at the grocery store to start getting cheaper, now. 

Still, the heavyweight in the Nasdaq are still probably going to tip the scales either way, given their weightings across the board for various indices, ETFs, allocations, sentiment, and the like. So far, tech and chips are staging fairly hard reversals lower. 

Two quick points on the semis, and take them with a grain of salt since, of course, we have several hours to go in today's session, and then tomorrow's week close. 

First, the SOX (semiconductor index) on the first daily chart, below, is putting in a similar reversal candle which we have seen previously. Clearly they were not *the* top before, but they were *a* minor top at least. 

Next, NVDA diverged versus the SOX on these recent highs, on the second daily chart. When the premier stock in the world negatively diverges on new highs from its sector, that seems like something of note.