Back in Town

After taking a few months off this summer to allow the initial rate cut euphoria to run its course, I am now "back in town" in the bond market and betting the short side on Treasuries, looking for higher rates in the belly and long end of the curve. 

Much like the 1970s with the oil embargo and wage/price spiral, we now have several seemingly exogenous events with the longshoreman strike and Middle East escalations which, let's be honest, never were really unexpected to begin with for anyone who has been tracking the rise in labor leverage and omnipresent tensions between Israel and Iran. Both of these events are inflationary, especially the longer they carry on. 

And much like the 1970s, unless we see a deep depression the potential for the bond market to go rogue with vigilantes and push rates higher even during a Fed easing cycle (or maybe because of it) is now more realistic than ever. 

Thus, I am taking another stab at the bond short at the bond market finally telling The Fed that enough is enough, and that they will no longer be acquiescing to whatever easy path the central bankers always seem to want to follow.