MarketChess

02Feb12:08 pmEST

The Path Forward for Gold

The gold metal ETF, below on the zoomed-out daily timeframe, has not precisely tested its 200-day simple moving average (yellow line, arrow) in more than two years. In that regard, the move we have seen has obviously been an incredible outlier. It is all too tempting to declare a major, multi-year top to gold, as many are now doing, given...

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30Jan3:03 pmEST

Afternoon Update 01/30/26 {Video}

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29Jan10:32 amEST

The Music Stops When it Stops

The latest melt-up in many key semiconductor stocks came as software stocks slumped to a glaring degree. In fact, the spread between the two segments of the Nasdaq reached such levels that bulls were pounding the table (and still may be) that an "obvious" rotation trade would soon be underway.  Specifically, they advocated to lighten up on the...

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27Jan2:06 pmEST

A Warning to the "Yeah, But Oil" Crowd

Throughout the course of this inflationary regime, with CPI and PCE both running well above "target," as prescribed by The Fed, for many years now, quite a few folks have countered with the argument that crude oil has not been out of hand or anything close to it. Thus, they reckoned that inflation has been overhyped and the true risk was and is...

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26Jan10:48 amEST

Enjoy Your Retirement, Bob the Jeweler

A few years ago, when gold was trading around $1900 per troy ounce, I found myself in a highly regarded jewelry store near me to pick up an old, nice watch I had them fix (with some gold in it). The nice gentleman behind the counter, we'll call him Bob, began to chat me up. One thing led to another, and he broached the topic of the market price...

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23Jan3:32 pmEST

Afternoon Update 01/23/26 {Video}

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22Jan2:27 pmEST

Here Come the Role Players

By now, the gold and silver rallies have come to the attention of most market players and pundits, with attention finally given by the financial news media. Mind you, we are still likely years away from widespread euphoria and positioning in the metals and miners to the point where I would even think about looking for a major top. However, the...

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21Jan3:34 pmEST

Ye Olde Framework Trick

After a back-and-forth session for much of the day, including a sizable fade off the morning highs, stocks shot higher this afternoon on breaking news that Trump had called off Europe tariffs relating to Greenland on the back of a "framework" for a deal. Needless to say, we have seen this dance before, with the TACO acronym coming to mind--It...

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20Jan1:49 pmEST

Red on Greenland

This time of year is typically when markets have no choice but to (finally) face reality. The holidays are long gone. We just had a three day weekend and will not have a scheduled holiday again for about a month. We are basically a full year into Trump's second term. Winter has been potent but figures to just be getting started. The days may be...

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16Jan3:26 pmEST

Afternoon Update 01/16/26 {Video}

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