Make Me Beautiful, Natural Gas

Natural gas had quietly been on fire this week. In particular, given the focus elsewhere on rates, crude, diesel, and just about every other typical distraction in this cycle from Washington, AI, Iran, and the like, it is quite easy to see how even a ferocious move like this in natty could be overlooked or even outright ignored as irrelevant.

After all, natty has earned various pejoratives over the years, and rightly so. Each and virtually every single time it looked ready to embark on a sustained rally, it would fold like a cheap suit and inevitably sink back to new lows. 

Thus, the latest iteration of natty's hopeful climb can be seen on the updated UNG ETF daily chart, below.

The bottom pane shows a surge in buy volume to accompany the price rally, which is a nice first step when one is trying to ascertain whether a new bull run is upon us. However, into backtests (if they come) I am gauging whether $10.80 can hold as newfound support, which would be a good litmus test on this breakout. 

Logic would dictate (See Also: The Cantillon Effect) that with the various spikes in commodities across the asset class over the last few years, natural gas stands to get its fifteen minutes of fame sooner or later. With winter now in front of us, one can make the case that natty is as ripe as it has ever been widow-maker or not, heart-breaker or not, and whichever profanity-laced tirade you can conjure up when it comes to previous failed breakout and ugly, abrupt gaps lower.

All it takes is one good facelift of a new bull run, however, and natty can repair its ugly image and enjoy a new life. 

Elsewhere, we have the usual Iran deal rumors, which seem to be gaining less and less traction from the market than they received during the spring and summer. 

It is a new season now, officially, after all.