Tesla's Last Seduction

05Feb11:26 amEST

We're Not Back Up Until This Happens

Of all the names composing the SMH, ETF for the semiconductors, the only names up more than 3% as I write this are ON and, of course, NVDA. Most of the rest of the ETF names are either red or up less than 1%. This is happening as the broad market sells off today, with the small caps and Dow clearly leading lower while the S&P and Nasdaq are...

04Feb10:24 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/04/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

02Feb11:13 amEST

Chasing One's Tail for Tail Risk

Nasdaq bulls can try all they want to "front-run rate cuts and a restart of QE." However, as we saw this week rates may temporarily head lower, but they do not want to stay down for very long. Case in point: After a strong jobs report this morning we have rates on the 10-Year Note (below on the TNX Index daily chart) back over 4% as I write...

01Feb1:24 pmEST

An Epic Triple-header Tonight

Stocks are bouncing as I write this, with bulls taking advantage of a relative lull during a busy week. That said, tonight begins the final spurt of events into Friday morning's jobs report, pre-market. But first, the big three report tonight: Apple, Amazon, and Meta. All three are obviously part of the "Magnificent 7" leadership which has...

31Jan12:32 pmEST

It's Now the Offseason for Mister Softee

Despite how pronounced the Alphabet (GOOGL) weakness is today, as we zoom towards the big FOMC at 2pm EST, I actually find the Microsoft (MSFT, below on the daily chart) reversal to be of even more significance. First and foremost, headed into earnings last evening MSFT was the largest publicly-traded firm at over $3 trillion in market cap,...

30Jan12:37 pmEST

Time for Chips to Finally Sober Up

Seeing as AMD earnings come out tonight alongside GOOGL and MSFT, it seems fairly easy to overlook the chip play on the eve of the FOMC. However, AMD, trading with a cool forward PE of 44, is no small potato in the semiconductor space. The firm has indeed been one of the key supporting actors beyond NVDA instrumental in the sector's most epic...

29Jan12:27 pmEST

Emerging Markets: The Ultimate Mirage?

Over the weekend I saw some data that flows into emerging markets reached the highest level in quite some time, as investors likely see bargains relative to America in the likes of China. However, that has been a sexy thesis for a while now, one which never seemed to pan out as China stocks grew weaker and weaker, defying even the late, great...

28Jan10:20 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 01/28/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

26Jan12:16 pmEST

All of a Sudden, Intel Matters Again

We are seeing the first real chink in the armor for the red-hot semiconductors today, as Intel and KLAC lead the selloff lower. Next week will see a ton of monster leaders reporting earnings, headlined by AAPL the same day as the FOMC on Wednesday. So, you can be sure tons of event risk is ahead of us. Of course, given this market's recent...

25Jan1:51 pmEST

Tesla's Last Seduction

Shares of Tesla are down more than 12% as I write this. It truly is a sign of the times of what type of market beast we are dealing with when no one is surprised at all that the indices are green, even if off the morning highs. It was not too long ago when a move like this in TSLA would have clear broad ramifications, if only for a few days....