Seinfeld Economics; TINSTAAFL

30Jul11:58 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/30/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

28Jul1:01 pmEST

Relentless History

The bid in equities certainly seems relentless and is likely historic on many fronts, as we have been noting. As an example, the Bank of Japan yield curve control semi-"tweak" overnight was taken n stride, at least for now. And CNN's Fear & greed Index its till stubbornly in "Extreme Greed" territory. However, if you have been following along...

27Jul12:31 pmEST

This Will Be the Spark

Putting to one side the omnipresent "Black Swan" risks of Japan's markets imploding, the Euro Zone going bust, China/Taiwan, North Korea, and of course Russian/Ukraine, the far more imminent risk as I see it is inflation surging back higher in the face of a Fed Chair staying stubbornly methodical and hellbent on not surprising markets. But...

26Jul3:23 pmEST

Even the Price of Milquetoast is Rising

milque·toast noun: milquetoast; plural noun: milquetoasts a timid or feeble person. adjective: milquetoast feeble, insipid, or bland. "a soppy, milquetoast composer" Origin 1930s: from the name of a cartoon character, Caspar Milquetoast, created by H. T. Webster in 1924. It is hard to imagine a Fed Chair more timid in his...

25Jul11:25 amEST

Slowly But Surely, Starting to Come Together

The indices may be telling a different story for now, but sectors like the airlines (ETF below on the weekly timeframe) are indicating that inflationary pressures alongside a softening consumer are finally showing some wear and tear. As you can see on JETS, the reversal we noted a few weeks ago after Delta's earnings continues to...

24Jul12:35 pmEST

A Midsummer Central Banker's Dream (or Nightmare)

The Italians call it, "Ferragosto," which is basically a public holiday for summer vacation in August. Other cultures around the world have similar traditions, especially in Europe. Here in America, most industries keep their noses to the grindstone, or at least they did. But the wizards of Wall Street are usually out on the Hamptons, Cape Cod,...

23Jul7:52 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/23/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

21Jul2:09 pmEST

This Sentiment is No Joke

CNN Fear & Greed Index's (below, updated) rigorous methodology has pointed to stubborn "Extreme Greed" for over a month now with only very brief slippage down to "Greed" territory. For as long as I have been tracking this Index, this is easily one of the longest streaks in either extreme territory that I have seen. But of course that is not...

20Jul2:18 pmEST

It's Not Just Netflix and Tesla

The headlines will naturally gravitate towards last evening's marquee earnings reports, NFLX and TSLA, as being the genesis for today's selloff mostly led lower in the Nasdaq. However, do not overlook rates on the 10-Year Note (below on the weekly chart for TNX) bouncing back over 3.8% and off prior resistance trend as support now. Higher...

19Jul12:32 pmEST

Seinfeld Economics; TINSTAAFL

"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch" The current market is making a mockery of seemingly obsolete concepts about how markets work, where good news is good news, bad news is good news, no news is good news, and then sometimes horrendous news is interpreted as great news anyway. It seems like there is a permanently new regime. But then...