I Feel Sorry for Your Thesis

22Aug1:40 pmEST

It's Still Early in the New Value Trap Era

-Value traps are investments that are trading at such low levels and present as buying opportunities for investors but are actually misleading. -For a value trap, the low price is often accompanied by extended periods of low multiples as well. -A value trap is often a poor investment: the low price and low multiples mean the company is...

21Aug12:12 pmEST

I am Just the Messenger

Do you know which stocks and sectors are not buying the bunch of baloney that NVDA and TSLA re trying to tell you today? Regional banks and REITs mostly. But also China stocks (again), and small caps in general as rates on the 10-Year Note challenge their prior October 2022 highs. In a rather pathetic (in the true sense of the word, pathos)...

20Aug9:00 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/20/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

18Aug2:26 pmEST

Too Many Blokes Looking to Buy

You may have noticed even fairly hardcore bears expect a bounce right here, as the natural inclination after quarters of constant melt-ups and snapback rallies can certainly distort expectations for a more normalized market. However, my overall bearish view remains intact and I see no reason to become infatuated with possible very near-term...

17Aug1:26 pmEST

Consider Where the Real Pain Is

Just take a step back and consider, objectively, how many seasoned Wall Street veterans are bullish on bonds for any number of reasons. First and foremost, there are those who believe an imminent credit event is upon us, and therefore there will be a scramble into Treasuries as The Fed inevitably cuts rates to cope with the crisis. Others see...

16Aug11:49 amEST

We've Got Ourselves Some Twin Peaks

The much ballyhooed "July breakout" in stocks saw one of the most ostentatious displays of arrogance, hubris, and outright obnoxious behavior I can recall from bulls since early-2021. But even back then, early-2021 was much more about pressing for one more good "YOLO" trade as opposed to last month where the rallying cry centered around...

15Aug11:13 amEST

Easy There on Chasing Old Warren This Time Around

Headlines are swirling with the latest disclosure from Berkshire that Buffett has bought into three homebuilders: DHI LEN and NVR. There are a few ways to look at these new bets, with perhaps them being hedges for the home remodeling businesses already owns which have been slowing date of late. After all, if new supply of homes is the issue,...

14Aug12:32 pmEST

You Might Have Forgotten, But the Market Did Not

We can go back sixteen years, to the infamous 2007 bull market top, and the regional banking sector ETF (KRE, below on the monthly chart) will show a distinct sensitivity to the $50 (horizontal light blue line) area which will surely be mocked by many new age traders in the market as being a kind of antiquated way of looking at things. And,...

13Aug10:46 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/13/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

11Aug1:20 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Thesis

A clip of Jerome Powell giving testimony on Capitol Hill has been making the rounds on Twitter of late. In the clip, he responds to a, "why does The Fed have a 2% inflation target, anyway?" question unimpressively, to say the least. If nothing else, it drives home the point about just how clueless these Central Bankers truly are and how...