MarketChess

24Mar2:30 pmEST

Getting a Bit Too Cute

As I wrote back on March 5th , "A Thousand Blows Could Ruin the Art of the Deal." Specifically, markets may stop assigning much faith at all to President Trump's use of tariffs as a now-you-see-it-now-you-don't negotiating tactic, given his propensity to dial back the rhetoric as he did last evening.  While bulls in equities today are...

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21Mar3:26 pmEST

Afternoon Update 03/21/25 {Video}

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20Mar1:56 pmEST

The Perfect Recipe to Limp Along

The FOMC has come and gone, with Powell soothing stagflation fears for the time being. Options expiration for the month and quarter is tomorrow. March Madness is underway as we speak. And Lord knows who is still, ahem, dehydrated from Saint Patrick's Day on Monday.  All of the above factors should make the price action today, thus far, not too...

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19Mar3:27 pmEST

There's Something About Powell

Although the initial FOMC statement seemed stagflationary, what with higher inflation forecasts and lower growth projections by the committee, Fed Chair Powell did his usual bit of spinning things in a dovish manner at his presser. Specifically, he is sticking to his guns that inflation is transitory, coupled with the economy being in a good...

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18Mar3:43 pmEST

The Party's Over, Nerds

Headed into the FOMC tomorrow we have stocks pulling back. Overall, we are flopping around as we expected with Members early this week. The true test will be how the market interprets The Fed's tone and tenor tomorrow regarding future policy moves, meaning how dovish they appear. In the meantime, shares of Reddit (weekly chart, first below) are...

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17Mar12:41 pmEST

One Sniff Will Last You the Rest of Your Journey

The VIX (which is said to measure fear from the options market, or at least an options market taken by surprise of events) chart, below on the daily timeframe, dates back to last summer. But we also know that since the pandemic any and all spikes above the 20 level have been but a whiff, of which we got a sniff and resumed the bull journey in...

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14Mar3:14 pmEST

Afternoon Update 03/14/25 {Video}

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13Mar10:34 amEST

Cooler Prints Prevailed...or Did They?

Earlier this morning a cool PPI print followed up yesterday's cool CPI. On the surface, many headlines boasted about inflation coming down and Fed rate cuts being more likely and numerous this year.  However, market pundits are still overlooking the reaction by the bond market. Rates on the 10-Year Note, for example, are clearly higher than...

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11Mar3:03 pmEST

Can You Handle the Drama and Chaos?

Markets are whipping around again today amid swirling geopolitical headlines, as many traders are beginning to become exasperated by all of the drama and chaos. Of course, it is a natural reaction--We are human, after all (well, at least most of us, with exception of the algos). As I write this, we are seeing a late-afternoon squeeze in the...

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10Mar12:38 pmEST

False Bottoms and False Prophets

It looks like Twitter (or "X," with the site having technical issues) is down with the market today, as Friday afternoon's upside reversal on Fed Chair Jay Powell's upbeat remarks about the economy is now falling flat.  For many years now, the market has given more than the benefit of the doubt to Powell. He always seemed to have the Midas...

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