Where There's Smoke, There's...Divergences

07Jun10:35 amEST

Wildfires and Rate Hikes, Eh?

Not only do we have the 2023 Central Canada wildfires making headlines this week, as the smoke and smog make their way down to even where I am in northern New Jersey by New York City, but we also have the Bank of Canada resuming rate hikes after a prior pause. In fact, rates in Canada just hit a 22-year high after that four month pause from...

06Jun12:36 pmEST

The Final Stage of Bifurcation

Small caps, China names, regional banks, biotechs, and especially retail stocks (the latter, below, on the XRT sector ETF daily chart) are all leading the action higher so far today amid flattish action on the senior indices. What those leading groups today have in common, of course, is that they have been glaring laggards for a good while now...

05Jun2:04 pmEST

An Apple Event a Day Keeps Reality Away

We have WWDC kicking off today, and shares of AAPL are in focus again and grabbing most of the headlines, even amid the OPEC cut and oil trying to get a little something going from beaten-down conditions. With a forward PE north of 27, especially considering the firm's sheer size, Apple is clearly not a value stock despite Mr. Buffett being...

04Jun9:40 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/04/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

02Jun10:26 amEST

The Pause That Wouldn't Refresh Anything

A strong jobs report for May is sending the Dow and a bunch of sectors which have been lagging higher with rates and the Dollar. Meanwhile, tech, biotech, ARKK, and chips are mostly red as bulls continue to look for a "pause" in the rate hikes from The Fed later this month at the June 14th FOMC. Bulls also argue, alternatively, that even if...

01Jun11:29 amEST

It's Only Degeneracy When Charlie Munger Says it Is

I must say that I find it a bit rich (richer than a Dairy Queen Blizzard, indeed) to see a slew of articles in recent months with an, "aw, shucks" vibe about Charlie Munger's "Alibaba Mistake and how to learn from it!" In particular, Munger has been a sharp-tongued--unforgiving and even downright--critic of most things speculative, be it...

31May10:51 amEST

Check the Forecast Before Any More Bookings

Booking Holdings (BKNG), below on the daily chart, actually printed new all-time highs just two weeks ago. Since then, as you can see, the stock has headed straight downhill. Formerly Priceline.com, Booking has clearly been a monster winner since 2009 as one of the poster children for a QE/ZIRP world, and then the "stimmies" of the pandemic...

30May10:48 amEST

The Same Battlefield Formation

Surprise, surprise. Chips and NVDA are leading the charge higher, while small caps, retail and China names (KWEB ETF, e.g.) are all red as I write this. We have profiled these divergences quite a bit lately. And I recognize that tech bulls are simply responding with a, "So, what?" view to the whole deal. But my view that the move in NVDA and...

28May11:09 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/28/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

25May10:37 amEST

Where There's Smoke, There's...Divergences

Another day, another session of glaring divergences which bulls are clearly mocking due to shares of NVDA launching a rocket to the moon and trading about 25% higher as I write this. Still, small caps in the IWM ETF are down by nearly 1% right now after shedding 1% yesterday, and rates and the Dollar continue to push higher yet. High yield and...