Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/10/23 {Video}

20Sep1:12 pmEST

What if it is the Pause Which Refreshes the Bond Selloff?

As we know, Jerome Powell is more than capable of being bullied into a corner. Case in point: Back in 2018 Powell was a brand new Fed Chair. He came out swinging with rate hikes and generally adopting a hard money approach, especially compared to the Bernanke and Yellen years. Then-President Trump ultimately made a point to publicly turn the...

19Sep1:47 pmEST

It Worked, And No One Cares

Lo and behold, the Home Depot bearish head and shoulders top, spanning mid-to-late summer as highlighted on the HD daily chart, below, triggered in a powerful way lower over the past few sessions. And no one cared. Bulls assume support will hold, and long-term players dismiss this move as merely noise. But given HD is not only in the Dow but...

18Sep1:12 pmEST

Here's Why I'm Short the XLF

Using one of the levered bear ETFs to go long, on Friday I alerted Members that I effectively went short the XLF (ETF for the financial sector's larger players, as the KRE houses the regional banks). So why not just short the regional banks instead? Sure, they do seem to be in trouble. However, in terms of risk to reward ratio, we have some...

17Sep10:41 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/17/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

15Sep11:43 amEST

A Market Reflects Its Fed

Just as a sports team eventually reflects its coach, and even a military unit reflects its squad leader, so too does a market eventually reflect its Fed's policies. Years of laughing in the face of headwinds, poor technical action, and even outright alarming news in the market reflects an arrogant Federal Reserve who wants nothing more than to...

14Sep10:49 amEST

Europe Needs a New Marshall Plan

With the ECB raising rates again this morning and also lowering growth forecasts, the Euro is selling off against the Dollar. On the Euro/Dollar monthly chart, below, I see no evidence of a long-term bottom in the face of a strong multi-year downtrend. In fact, risk looks much lower here into 2024, as the European Union in general could...

13Sep10:33 amEST

Know When You're Being Manipulated

You may have noticed the language coming out of people like Nick Timiraos (of the WSJ and widely seen as The Fed's mouthpiece) immediately after the hotter-than-expected CPI print this morning. Specifically, the great lengths he went to downplay the uptick in inflation. He noted how it was merely "a touch" above expectations, as though he were...

12Sep10:57 amEST

Let's Find the Real Apex Predator

As we head into what are highly likely to be the pivotal events for the rest of 2023, namely the CPI tomorrow, then the FOMC next week, it is worth noting that both the High Yield Corporate Bond and Junk Bond ETFs, respectively below on their weekly timeframes, are at their apexes after roughly sixteen month consolidations each. From periods of...

11Sep11:35 amEST

Opening Game Moves

The overall price action early on smacks of a kind of opening game you would expect in a championship chess match, with both sides trying to jockey for just the right position headed into the CPI this Wednesday, followed by the FOMC the week after. Specifically, NVDA and semiconductors are selling off, while TSLA is surging higher to the tune...

10Sep11:34 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/10/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...