MarketChess

08Jul3:17 pmEST

Another Crack Epidemic

Crack spreads (profit margins for refinery firms, derived from processing sludgy crude oil into products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, even lubricants and asphalt, continue to spike higher in the face of a sharp correction in crude itself since mid-May.  Courtesy of @Rory_Johnston on X, the first chat, below, shows crack spreads specifically...

Read More

07Jul3:24 pmEST

I'm Sorry I Ruined Your Oil Bear Party

Just as oil bulls are being mocked, castigated, and generally laughed off the stage on a daily basis as both the White House and various oil bears take one victory lap after the next, we have crude popping nicely today amid reports of escalations in the Middle East.  As we have been noting with Members of late, the most likely explanation...

Read More

06Jul1:05 pmEST

Pump Up the Jam

President Trump is out with various, explicit "Trump Pumps" today, be with DELL stock, the market at-large by launching his "Trump Accounts," and ringing the opening bell this morning to accompany some wildly optimistic remarks about future prices of equities. At this point, an  old techno song  may as well be the theme song for this White...

Read More

02Jul3:15 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/02/26 {Video}

Read More

01Jul2:53 pmEST

Tilting the Odds

Amid the steep selloff in tech and especially semiconductors today to kick off the new month and quarter, it seems to be lost in the shuffle that both the banks and insurers (the latter on the ETF monthly chart, second below, breaking out) are rallying sharply. Recall that both the banks and insurance firms are seen as "rate-sensitive," meaning...

Read More

30Jun1:49 pmEST

You Come to Expect the Fight

Despite Treasuries topping out during the pandemic (which means rates on the long end of the curve bottomed) we still have not yet seen a classic panic/washout bottom in the bond market. Bond bulls remain steadfast that a new bull market in bonds is just around the corner, either due to money leaving equities and commodities during a...

Read More

29Jun3:28 pmEST

Doesn't Seem Aboveboard

Here we are again after another weekend of rapid fire reports of escalations with Iran, followed by a miracle Sunday evening announcement (just before futures opened) that both sides had (apparently) agreed to peace talks this week.  It is difficult to believe that the market keeps going along with this shockingly redundant pattern, especially...

Read More

26Jun3:34 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/26/26 {Video}

Read More

25Jun2:15 pmEST

Let's Get This Out of the Red

After forcing myself to be patient for several months now, I am warming up to the idea that most of the commodity complex has been washed out lower, be it oil, gold, silver, and ags. Specifically, the levered longs from last month in oil are likely at the point where they are mumbling to themselves as they walk to their cars in the casino...

Read More

24Jun11:00 amEST

Micron Macro

Semiconductors are displaying relative weakness as I write this amid a broad market morning bounce to respond to yesterday's sharp Nasdaq-led selloff. However, we have to be honest that this is all prologue to the ~$1.2 trillion market cap Micron Technology, Inc. earnings event this evening. And that is all the more pronounced given that we...

Read More