Higher for Longer Until "Something" Breaks

12Jul10:19 amEST

Celebrating What's Swept Under

Markets are still ebullient as I write this, with the softer CPI print this morning going as expected for the majority. The issue is that since the June CPI data, we have gasoline prices and oil going much higher, as seen respectively below on the daily charts for UGA and USO ETFs. Even though energy is only one part of the CPI, it is surely a...

11Jul12:16 pmEST

On Tigers, Bulls, and Bears

Well over a decade ago, the late, great, Julian Robertson gave an interview where he recalled being too early (i.e. wrong!) in shorting the Dot-Com Bubble in 1999/2000. Robertson had founded Tiger Management, one of the first hedge funds, in 1980, and is still considered to this day to be a Wall Street legend, mentoring tons of future stars. ...

10Jul11:49 amEST

A Consensus Emerges

It is only human nature that you see sentiment shift the way it has this year. After all, nothing truly bad seems to happen anymore. And even when it does, stocks either immediately shrug if off and lurch higher or, as was the case in March, The Fed and Treasury immediately blink and "backstop" the system with another batch of liquidity. Thus,...

09Jul9:46 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/09/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

07Jul11:52 amEST

The Fed Checked Out of Inflation

But they can't ever leave. Despite a cooler jobs report this morning than the ADP data yesterday implied, fears of another Fed rate hike later this month remain very much in play. Small caps are trying to shrug that off by bouncing back from yesterday's selloff. However, I am looking for $186 (just above spot price) on the IWM ETF for the...

06Jul10:49 amEST

I Had to Get it on, Man; Inflation Was Making a Move

Prior comparisons to bull runs in stocks amid higher rates miss the mark insofar as the debt-to-GDP ratio being in the stratosphere this time around, not to mention a prolonged period of QE/ZIRP/"stimmies" policies enabling plenty of companies to not only survive but thrive when they otherwise would not have lasted a year or two in normalized...

05Jul1:36 pmEST

Rates Don't Matter; Its Cool, Guys

Coming off the holiday, and in front of the Fed Minutes at the bottom of the hour, we have rates on the 10-Year Note zooming up beyond 3.9% as I write this. Equities are mixed, with the Nasdaq turning in another too-cool-for-school session so far, completely ignoring the spike in rates. Bulls are pointing to this as even more evidence that both...

02Jul7:57 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/02/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

30Jun1:42 pmEST

Dress Those Windows

To follow-up on our discussion about Apple from earlier this week, the premier stock in the world just surpassed $3 trillion in market cap today on a gap up above an incredibly steep rising channel (daily chart, below, highlights all of this). Once again, you are talking about a stock at trading thirty times forward earnings, with slowing...

29Jun10:43 amEST

Higher for Longer Until "Something" Breaks

With stronger than expected GDP, uniform passing of stress tests by banks, and weekly jobless claims posting the biggest drop in twenty months, bulls seem to be in the "have our cake and eat it, too" mindset. However, in economics there is always a price to be paid. Here, rates must go higher, even as Powell and his band of merry printers at...