MarketChess

09Feb2:45 pmEST

Afternoon Update 02/09/24 {Video}

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08Feb10:27 amEST

Are Big Round Numbers Too Beaucoup, Even for This Market?

Although it seems far more like a bunch of baloney than a brilliant observation, the truth is that Wall Street history is littered with major, multi-year (even multi-decade) showdowns at big, round numbers.  We currently have the monster, NVDA, dueling with $700, and the S&P 500 Index battling the 5,000 level, both of which are at all-time...

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07Feb1:34 pmEST

I Think I'll Just Stay Here and Drink

Long-term extended and expensive names, like COST ORLY and Visa, are pushing higher yet today as some of the heavier-weighted names in the Nasdaq, like META, also try to pick up the slack and drown out weakness in the small caps and biotechs again.  The same dynamic, of an extremely narrow but historically resilient bull market melt-up, that we...

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06Feb12:22 pmEST

Did AI Solve the Need to Ship Goods Around the World?

Nice breakout attempts from some nice shipping charts, below, which we have been noting with Members for a while now: GNK and SB.  Meanwhile. NVDA is finally dipping and perhaps printing a bearish engulfing daily reversal candle, pending the close today.  Still, we have seen this movie too many times before to not think that dip-buyers/0DTE...

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05Feb11:26 amEST

We're Not Back Up Until This Happens

Of all the names composing the SMH, ETF for the semiconductors, the only names up more than 3% as I write this are ON and, of course, NVDA.  Most of the rest of the ETF names are either red or up less than 1%.  This is happening as the broad market sells off today, with the small caps and Dow clearly leading lower while the S&P and Nasdaq are...

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04Feb10:24 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/04/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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02Feb11:13 amEST

Chasing One's Tail for Tail Risk

Nasdaq bulls can try all they want to "front-run rate cuts and a restart of QE." However, as we saw this week rates may temporarily head lower, but they do not want to stay down for very long. Case in point: After a strong jobs report this morning we have rates on the 10-Year Note (below on the TNX Index daily chart) back over 4% as I write...

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01Feb1:24 pmEST

An Epic Triple-header Tonight

Stocks are bouncing as I write this, with bulls taking advantage of a relative lull during a busy week.  That said, tonight begins the final spurt of events into Friday morning's jobs report, pre-market.  But first, the big three report tonight: Apple, Amazon, and Meta.  All three are obviously part of the "Magnificent 7" leadership which has...

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31Jan12:32 pmEST

It's Now the Offseason for Mister Softee

Despite how pronounced the Alphabet (GOOGL) weakness is today, as we zoom towards the big FOMC at 2pm EST, I actually find the Microsoft (MSFT, below on the daily chart) reversal to be of even more significance.  First and foremost, headed into earnings last evening MSFT was the largest publicly-traded firm at over $3 trillion in market cap,...

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30Jan12:37 pmEST

Time for Chips to Finally Sober Up

Seeing as AMD earnings come out tonight alongside GOOGL and MSFT, it seems fairly easy to overlook the chip play on the eve of the FOMC.  However, AMD, trading with a cool forward PE of 44, is no small potato in the semiconductor space. The firm has indeed been one of the key supporting actors beyond NVDA instrumental in the sector's most epic...

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