Stock Market Recap 04/07/15 {Video}

09Apr10:37 amEST

Starting to Come Together

The thesis we looked at yesterday for rates to head higher may very well be starting to play out. Specifically, the rate-sensitive sectors in equities, REITs and utilities, are weak this morning (IYR and XLU ETFs as proxies, respectively), while Treasuries are looking heavy and vulnerable to following suit, keying off the TLT ETF. As a result,...

08Apr4:27 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 04/08/15 {Video}

The following video contains coverage of relevant broad market issues (for equities) in addition to plenty of actionable trading ideas across other asset classes. Feel free to pick and choose which ideas and parts of the analysis fit your style. Always properly manage your downside portfolio risk for any trades taken. Enjoy tonight's...

08Apr3:51 pmEST

Clarifying a Point About the Bulletproof Dollar

Into the bell, I just want to clarify that in order for me to presume the Dollar has broken up and tut from the bull flag consolidation we have been discussing, I want to see UUP ETF clear and hold over the $26 level. If we do see that, then I would also assume crude and energy stocks could be in for some further downside, if not most...

08Apr3:24 pmEST

Swimming the Channel

With the Dollar strengthening and crude oil not catching much of a bounce after the FOMC Minutes today, energy stocks may be setting up for another short. Heavyweights such as CVX XOM remains quite weak overall, though the bull case is that they are putting in a long, sloppy base bottom. Still, the XLE, ETF for the energy sector, shows an...

08Apr2:42 pmEST

Well Hello My Name is Simon, and I Like to Give Clues About Rates

Another trade which may be setting up is to go short Treasuries. To my eye, the rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks, or REITs, will be a good clue as to whether that trade comes to fruition. On the daily chart for the IYR, sector ETF for the REITs, note how price has made a series of lower highs but higher lows (light blue lines) since...

08Apr1:33 pmEST

A Beautiful Flag Up Top

Despite the U.S. Dollar and crude oil rising in unison yesterday, I am still not quite prepared to fully believe that the inverse correlation between the two has reached its conclusion. In addition, commodities as a whole remain suspect to me for anything more than quick swing scalp attempts, be it my win in NUGT or loss in UGAZ, as recent...

08Apr12:12 pmEST

Stopped in Its Tracks

Here is an update to that ongoing hourly SPY chart we have been observing. On the zoomed-out look, below, note the $208.50 area acting as resistance of late, after buyers valiantly defended that area just above $204 again in recent weeks. The upper and lower light blue lines I have drawn denote as much. I suspect bulls are going to need to...

08Apr11:17 amEST

No Dice on This One; Chess Moves

Honoring my planned stop-loss, I sold my UGAZ long (levered long natural gas ETF) at $2.20 from my $2.42 entry for a loss. On the UNG ETF daily chart, below, the upside breakout to the highlighted (in light blue) wedge failed to sustain itself for a tradable leg higher. Yesterday's initial rally was promising, but sellers proved to be too much...

08Apr10:48 amEST

China Wearing That Game Face

With the FXI gapping much higher this morning, after several weeks prior of moving up, it is easy to say that the China country ETF is now overbought--And it is. But the monthly chart of one of the top components China Mobile, seen below, adds some perspective. You can see after the 2007/8 run-up and crash that we had a long period of "dead...

07Apr4:41 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 04/07/15 {Video}

The following video contains coverage of relevant broad market issues (for equities) in addition to plenty of actionable trading ideas across other asset classes. Feel free to pick and choose which ideas and parts of the analysis fit your style. Always properly manage your downside portfolio risk for any trades taken. Enjoy tonight's...