MarketChess

04Feb3:26 pmEST

It's a Start

I just tweeted out a chart of NVIDIA on the daily timeframe showing the monster chip leader finding some resistance intraday at the scene of its bear flag breakdown. All of this is happening below its 200-day moving average, which made me realize that both NVDA and Microsoft, the latter below on its daily chart, are the first two mega cap...

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03Feb1:35 pmEST

Don't Forget About the Real Inflation Gauge

The period immediately after the Super Bowl, which begins this Sunday evening, is assuredly the dead period of winter, where the holidays and the freshness of the winter season from late-last year are a distant memory, but the anticipation of spring is still too far away to truly get excited.  Thus, one can be forgiven for not thinking much...

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31Jan2:59 pmEST

Afternoon Update 01/31/25 {Video}

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30Jan1:04 pmEST

Catalysts Versus Excuses

When you see a high, tight bull flag, especially on a long-term timeframe like the GLD ETF (for gold metal) monthly chart, first below, uncoil higher with aggression it is almost assuredly a sign of extreme bullishness given the urgency of buyers to pounce on any and all long-term pauses. We have been highlighting this flag for a while now,...

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29Jan10:47 amEST

Cutting? Seriously, Cutting?

At the risk of launching a Jim Mora rant , I will simply flag the DBA ETF (for a basket of soft commodities) weekly chart, second below, challenging ten-year highs from December 2024 here as softs stage a resurgence in early-2025.  The first graph, below, shows the top-weighted components of DBA--Ask yourself how significant each one of these...

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27Jan2:04 pmEST

Fighting on the Frontier

While a fiery debate rages on about whether China's DeepSeek AI firm legitimately renders the epic rally in America's AI plays a bubble ripe to pop, or not, we are more focused on the technical developments reflected in the charts.  And when we see the updated charts for NVDA and many semiconductors it is clear that we buyers and sellers are...

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24Jan3:18 pmEST

Afternoon Update 01/24/25 {Video}

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23Jan3:27 pmEST

Don't Underestimate Japan

Lost in the shuffle of NFLX earnings and Trump's first few days in office for his second terms with endless headlines and sound bites is the Bank of Japan meeting this evening. Markets are actually almost fully pricing in a rate hike, the likes of which we have not seen since last summer when we saw a violent but ephemeral spike in the VIX as...

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22Jan12:40 pmEST

This is Not the Golden Age of Flying

While Netflix's earnings surge understandably steals the show today, adding fuel to the Nasdaq, we have a glaring sell-the-news reaction to the quietly hot airline space taking place in United, after its own earnings last evening.  On the updated UAL daily chart, below, we can see the sharp green-to-red move, currently sporting a sizable red...

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21Jan12:29 pmEST

Hedonistic Nihilism

Hedonism is the belief that pleasure is the most important thing in life, while nihilism is the belief that life has no meaning or value. A combination of the two is called hedonistic nihilism. Given the shenanigans of the meme coins ($TRUMP and $MELANIA coins, for example, not to mention the estimable $FART coin) over the long weekend now,...

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