MarketChess

17Apr9:29 amEST

Ten Years in the Books for Market Chess

If you have followed my work over the years then you know that I generally abstain from indulging in self-aggrandizing. The wins come, the losses come. That is life as a true speculator. I put myself out there every single day and let the chips fall where they may. So, there is no need for constant puffery--My work and personality are not for...

Read More

16Apr10:12 amEST

Glass Half Empty Rally

Retail sales jumped this morning. China said overnight that they would be at least open to negotiations on the trade war and Taiwan.  And, yet, equities opened this morning with a sharp, Nasdaq-led gap down as NVIDIA leads lower by 6% on news of them facing a $5.5 billion charge as the U.S. restricts chip sales to China. In other words, despite...

Read More

14Apr2:06 pmEST

An Inbetween Market

After a few stutter step fades earlier, stocks are drifting back higher as I write this into the heart of the afternoon part of the session. As we recently noted with Members, this is a holiday-shortened week (markets are closed on Friday) leading up Easter Sunday, which means one cannot rule out a low volume respite from the recent bout of...

Read More

11Apr3:07 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/11/25 {Video}

Read More

10Apr3:23 pmEST

Beware the Nice Guy Syndrome

We have ourselves another day on Wall Street with extremely wide price swings. And, yet, it is another day where, as I write this, we are well off session lows into the final ninety minutes of the session as bulls continue to pound the table for a good bottom being firmly in place for equities.  Beyond the wild volatility, we have gold (and...

Read More

09Apr3:31 pmEST

Roller Coaster of Tariff Love

The afternoon broad market surge today on the back of President Trump announcing a 90-day postponement of non-China tariffs has understandably galvanized longs while stupefying bears. After all, the major indices shot up nearly 10% in a matter of moments.  In moments like these, and indeed in markets like these, overall, it is quite easy to...

Read More

08Apr3:03 pmEST

Now That's a Fade

Today's fade off a 4%-plus broad rally from earlier in the session seems like more evidence that we are in a new market regime, transitioning from long-term bull to bear. Tons of market players and pundits alike, respected veterans included, have planted the proverbial flag in the ground in recent sessions to declare a bottom is locked in,...

Read More

07Apr1:15 pmEST

Yes, That Counts

With false rumors swirling all day today about alleged pauses and delays in tariffs, we saw the S&P 500 Index surge earlier from 4,826 up to 5,246 in a matter of moments. First and foremost, that sort of violence (hard and fast price swings, intraday moves) is far more characteristic of a bear than a bull market, overall. The reason being Bear...

Read More

04Apr2:54 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/04/25 {Video}

Read More

03Apr2:20 pmEST

Sloppy Margarine or Smooth as Butter?

The main issue which intrigues me during this sell-off is whether we see margin calls (essentially forced, indiscriminate selling which often aligns with actual fear and panic as markets cascade lower) this afternoon into the closing bell, which of course is a function of brokers and risk management departments asserting themselves as markets...

Read More