MarketChess

08May10:38 amEST

Top Two Pair

As oil tries to sustain a relief rally alongside oil-related stocks, note that the two best performers in the OIH (ETF for the beaten-down oil services stocks) have consistently been RIG snd VAL, respectively below on their daily charts, over the last week or so. These are still high on my radar due to their short squeeze potential, at a...

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06May2:50 pmEST

It's Easy to Forget

Equities staged an intraday fade of an initial bounce off headlines that Trump teased imminent trade deals, which may be an early sign of fatigue on the part of the market regarding the nonstop conjecture around the various tariffs we have seen for a good while now. As they say, there is only so much tread on a tire. In addition, Nick Timiraos...

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05May2:42 pmEST

You're in the Wrong Town

Equities are lethargic and mixed, overall, in front of both HIMS PLTR earnings this evening (two of the more prominent growth plays of late) and then the FOMC on Wednesday.  However, you will note rates on the long end of the curve pushing higher yet. With the Trump Tax Bill pending, meaning that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vowed that...

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04May11:37 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/04/25 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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01May1:45 pmEST

Don't Get High on Your Own Overhead Supply

Microsoft is surging more than 8% today, a sizable move for a name as large as it is in terms of market cap. For several quarters now we have profiled the relative and absolute weakness in MSFT, to the point where bulls ignored the name, essentially, during the winter months in favor of whatever was working at the time. However, at a certain...

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30Apr12:12 pmEST

Claws Versus Horns

Courtesy of the Modern Wealth Management website , the below chart is instructive insofar as putting in to perspective just what a bear market rally actually looks like and how long it can last.  I define an ongoing bear market as the major indices primarily operating below a declining 200-day moving average, with attempts to regain the...

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28Apr12:55 pmEST

Nike: Just Extrapolate It

With Nike earnings are out of the way, the retail icon still looks like it is still scared of its own shadow. While NKE is certainly cheaper than it has been, it trades, even now, at a forward PE of 29 and is far from a dirt cheap, "blue light special." In other words, it is more likely to be a value trap than a value buy even after a...

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25Apr3:34 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/25/25 {Video}

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24Apr3:34 pmEST

You Sure About That, Slick?

Both Chipotle and Tesla, respectively on their daily charts, below, are green after earnings this week, a point celebrated by bulls as illustrating that their prior multi-month downtrends had priced in all bad news for now.  However, the bounces are objectively not impressive thus far. Both CMG and TSLA remain in firm downtrends, with price...

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23Apr1:54 pmEST

It All Depends on Your Starting Point

"An old saying is that in a bull market, your time horizons grow longer and longer. In a bear market, they grow shorter and shorter." -Tom Gayner As much as we discuss various price levels and moving average reference points on the major indices, the fact remains that bulls view this abrupt rally the last two sessions as part an parcel of a...

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