Monthly Archives: December 2023
Showing articles 11 - 20 (23 total)
15Dec1:56 pmEST
Watch Your Back, Even During the Holidays
The next official sustained period of seasonal weakness is not until late-January/February. However, into the market melt-up it is likely worth noting sectors which have squeezed back up to what should be difficult levels on a long-term basis. The commercial real estate stocks in the IYR ETF, below on the weekly timeframe, represent one such...
14Dec2:31 pmEST
Once Again, Will You Remember Genco?
Lost in the shuffle of all the Fed victory laps, emotions, and general news flow this week has been the $2.1 billion merger between SBLK and EGLE to form the U.S.'s largest dry-bulk shipping company. About a week or two prior to the merge we had noted the strength in Eagle both here and with Members. In addition, we thought Genco (GNK, on...
13Dec2:29 pmEST
Almond Joy's Got Nuts, This Fed Don't
To call Jay Powell another Arthur Burns would, at this point, be a hideous insult to Arthur Burns. If you know your history, then you know that Burns raised rates to a high of 13.55% during the week of July 3rd, 1974. Powell, in his eternal quest to placate doves (and likely the Administration) does not have the stomach for even half of that...
12Dec1:12 pmEST
All Roads Lead to Rome...And The Fed
There is little point in bemoaning or bellowing over the fact that all market roads seem to lead to The Fed these days. Simply put, it is one of the main byproducts of the response by The Fed and then-Chair Ben Bernanke to the financial crisis back in 2008/2009. Back then, in the most dire days of that bear market, investors where begging and...
11Dec3:03 pmEST
A Divergence, I Reckon
This will be a critical week for many markets, of course, headed into 2024 with the FOMC on Wednesday. The next FOMC after this one will not happen until the final day of January of next year. In particular, gold and silver metals are getting hit again today, with silver down hard over the last six trading sessions after its prior steep rally...
10Dec10:39 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 12/10/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
08Dec11:15 amEST
The Great Mispricing
I have not added back to my bond short (via long TBT, a bearish ETF derived from TLT as a way to bet on higher rates), just yet. However, I am chomping at the bit to do so, as TBT was easily my largest position by size for most of 2023 up until a little over a month ago when I sold most of it. That said, the chasm between the market pricing in...
07Dec1:24 pmEST
Things Are Happening in Brazil
We know China has displayed terrible price action of late, as seen on the FXI country ETF on the second daily chart, below. Indeed, YANG (a levered BEAR ETF) has been a Watchlist trade idea for Members in the service for a while. Obviously, China is oversold now. But the fact remains the weakness has been persistent, even if we see an oversold...
06Dec3:07 pmEST
They're Handcuffed; We're Not
Even as equities mostly revert to the flat-line, we are seeing some potent moves in the bond and oil markets of late. While the macro experts proclaim the rally in Treasuries and the selloff in oil as being evidence per se of The Fed having achieved the elusive "soft landing," I beg to differ. In fact, headed into 2024 my sense is that these...
05Dec1:14 pmEST
The Big Picture is Still There
We have some slow-drip type of price action taking place in the early segment of holiday trading, as the indices flounder and commodities are correcting while the Dollar and Treasuries rise. On that note, I am still biding my time before adding back to a short in Treasuries (and thus a bet on higher rates, which was my biggest position by size...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
