MarketChess

23May3:12 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/23/25 {Video}

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22May12:48 pmEST

A Sector Full of Sinners

A value trap is a stock or other investment that appears attractively priced because it has been trading at low valuation metrics, such as price to earnings (P/E), price to cash flow (P/CF), or price to book value (P/B) for an extended period. A value trap persuades investors because the trade appears inexpensive relative to historical...

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21May3:02 pmEST

One of Us! One of Us!

As much as I may feel like a freak or outcast over the last many years worrying about a bond market crash, I have maintained my conviction all along in the long-term view. Specifically, a bond market crash would be at the epicenter of the next bear market in equities and, indeed, the next big crisis at-large. The Fed, Congress, and several...

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20May2:11 pmEST

Cutting it High and Tight

We have another slow-moving, mixed tape today as the holiday weekend approaches. Bearish seasonal forces are beginning to emerge, likely competing against the constant retail buying spree into any and all micro dips. The news flow is not disastrous, but it does not seem to inspire a sustained move higher either. Hence, the grinding action. ...

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19May1:26 pmEST

A Few Tough Looks

Equities are mostly shrugging off the Moody's downgrade into the afternoon portion of this session, as the initial morning selloff petered out in a familiar way. Specifically, retail dip-buyers continue to ride their "heater" since early-April, using any and all dips as spots to reload longs.  The issue, of course, is whether that retail surge...

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16May3:31 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/16/25 {Video}

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15May11:38 amEST

Everyone Loves a Comeback, Except This One

It is worth doing another update on AT&T, as the quarterly chart, below, shows the stock threatening a multi-decade breakout from the well-defined resistance trend-line I have drawn. AT&T yields just over 4% now, not quite the monstrosity of a dividend it had when we turned bullish on the name in May 2022 inside the VIP segment (where we focus...

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13May2:42 pmEST

Inflation Bombs Away

Despite a cool CPI print this morning we have rates on the long end of the curve soundly higher. As I write this rates on the 10-Year Note are pushing over 4.5%. And, as we noted yesterday, a move to 5% still seems likely in the coming months. Given that this morning's inflation beat (or miss, depending on how you phrase it, either way a cool...

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12May1:26 pmEST

There Still Ain't No Free Lunch

Equities may very well be reading into the U.S./China temporary tariff cuts as avoiding stagflation, at least for the time being. However, this reaction has all the makings of a knee-jerk emotional one which will see sobering effects in due time, likely within a week or two.  Specifically, you may notice that rates are pushing higher again,...

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09May3:13 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/09/25 {Video}

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