MarketChess

01Dec2:26 pmEST

Nothing Ever Happens, Right?

Overnight we saw rates in Japan push to seventeen year highs in some cases, as pressure mounts on the Bank of Japan to raise rates at their December 19th meeting (the FOMC is next week on the 10th, where a cut is now expected). The push higher in rates in Japan is being met with rates here in America moving higher today, too.  On the TLT ETF...

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28Nov9:38 amEST

Hey CME, Turn Those Machines Back On!

Futures were halted for ten hours overnight, as traders were not been able to buy or sell CME futures and options, including for U.S. indexes, Treasuries, metals, and oil due to "cooling problems" at a key data center. Conspiracy theories aside , the precious metals and derivative miners are flourishing here, following-through on the setup...

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25Nov2:42 pmEST

Tremendous Moxie for Their Size

As slippery and untrustworthy as oil has been, you cannot deny the moxie, grit, and underlying bid that the oil services and equipment stocks in the OIH ETF have showing for a while now. Case in point: Even with crude having a soft session (but rallying off the session lows as we speak in the USO ETF) NBR (below on the daily chart) is one of...

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24Nov3:16 pmEST

They Just Keep Boozin' it Up

With a conspicuous lack of adults in the room inside the Beltway these days, the goal of The Fed and White House seems to be to perpetually goose asset prices and stave of recessions forever, or at least during the lifetime of their power. Just today we have the third quarter GDP estimate data release cancelled, while the PCE (The Fed's favored...

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21Nov2:53 pmEST

Afternoon Update 11/21/25 {Video}

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20Nov11:57 amEST

We've Been Here Before

After an emotional post-NVIDIA earnings after hours session last evening we are seeing a broad market fade set in as we head into the New York lunch hour. While NVDA bulls are pointing towards bears' accusations of fraud as evidence per se of the pain trade being higher yet for AI, as I write this I see NVDA just flipped red, seen on the daily...

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18Nov2:54 pmEST

More Horrors in the Crawl Space

I recently watched the well-crafted Peacock miniseries, "Devil in Disguise: John Wayne Gacy" (which blows the Ed Gein one out of the water, by the way, in terms of overall quality). Gacy, as you may know, hid the remains of most of his victims in the crawl space underneath his Norwood Park Township, Illinois, home.  You may forgive me for the...

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17Nov3:11 pmEST

Growing More Dangerous

After a brief spike over 20 last month, the VIX (or Volatility Index, which typically measures expectations of fear in the options market) immediately moved back down into the mid-teens, a fairly common occurrence from this market regime we have seen over the years, particularly since the pandemic.  As we have noted often both here and with...

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14Nov2:59 pmEST

Afternoon Update 11/14/25 {Video}

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13Nov1:56 pmEST

Diminishing Returns

We are seeing a fairly steep broad sell-off this afternoon. And, perhaps, of even more significance is the fact that the likes of CNBC is struggling to assign a reason for said big move. It is often said that when markets sell off on (seemingly) no news it can be seen as all the more bearish, as opposed to headline-drive swoons.  Of course, one...

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