MarketChess

07Oct3:13 pmEST

Out of Tune

Despite some fairly hawkish Fed Minutes this afternoon it appears as though a solid 10-Year auction is sufficient to send rates back below 5.3% as I write this in the final hour. That said, rate-sensitive sectors like the REITs (IYR) and homebuilders (XHB) are not responding in kind to the fade in rates, at least not yet. Regarding the Minutes,...

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06Oct2:57 pmEST

Film Noir Market

One of the central elements of the film noir genre is a fatalistic storyline. Fatalistic is defined as the belief or attitude that all events are predetermined, inevitable, and impossible for humans to change or avoid. Thus, when viewing the price action across markets these days, one cannot help but wonder if we have a fatalistic storyline...

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05Oct2:25 pmEST

MOVE, VIX, Get Out the Way

The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index reflects the level of volatility in U.S. Treasury futures. In effect, the MOVE Index is considered the "VIX" of the bond market, reflecting implied volatility and regimes of higher volatility in general where the bond market is unhinged. In addition to the action in high yield corporate...

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02Oct3:16 pmEST

Afternoon Update 10/02/26 {Video}

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01Oct3:12 pmEST

Even the Groundhog is Tired of This Market

To say that this market has been stuck in a redundant feedback loop which would make Groundhog Day (1993) blush would be the understatement of the century at this point. In particular, each and every single day (and overnight) the tape is bombarded with headlines from Trump, the White House, and various Fed-heads attempting to assuage any...

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30Sep3:11 pmEST

You Cannot Fool All of the Markets, All of the Time

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” -Abraham Lincoln  Within the hour we will finally have that explosive candlestick for rates on the 10-Year Note officially in the books, as the third quarter of trading ends today.  On the updated TNX...

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29Sep2:57 pmEST

Golden Top Arches

While the rally in shares of Carnival Cruise Lines is popping today after earnings, that chart remains broken and the gap looks to be nothing more than a retest of the prior $25/$26 breakdown level. Instead, I maintain that the likes of Costco, Walmart, and McDonald's are far better tests for the health (or lack thereof) of 80-90% of the...

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28Sep2:02 pmEST

The Writing on the Wall

Just because we know the daily rumor mill will keep heavily churning indefinitely does not make this type of market regime any less exhausting and tedious to trade on a daily basis. It certainly seems as though the White House does not feel it can afford to take one single trading day off from sweating the tape to focus on other issues, as we...

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25Sep3:16 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/25/26 {Video}

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24Sep2:20 pmEST

Make Me Beautiful, Natural Gas

Natural gas had quietly been on fire this week. In particular, given the focus elsewhere on rates, crude, diesel, and just about every other typical distraction in this cycle from Washington, AI, Iran, and the like, it is quite easy to see how even a ferocious move like this in natty could be overlooked or even outright ignored as irrelevant....

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