MarketChess

22Aug3:34 pmEST

I'm Sorry Ms. Jackson Hole, The Jobs Numbers Are Not for Real

The front-running of major events has been one of the hallmarks of this market for a while now, with inside information rumored to be circulating to the well-connected in a timely manner. The simple fact is that we will probably never know for sure whether that is the case. And, frankly, that is life on Wall Street and has been for over a...

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21Aug2:52 pmEST

The Longest Game

Even with a firm VIX and strong Yen today, stocks are a bit higher today as I write this on the back of both massive BLS job revisions lower plus dovish Fed Minutes, both of which would seem to give The Fed ample cover to cut rates in September.  However, those traders who either traded through or studied initial rate cuts, like 2007, know that...

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20Aug2:12 pmEST

Who Does Number Two Work For?

With a little over one week until NVIDIA reports earnings, it is completely understandable that the buildup to it will continue to be dramatic. After all, we are talking about the largest, most prominent stock at the epicenter of the Nasdaq/AI/semiconductor melt-ups all rolled into on ticker. We also have a high profile, black leather...

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19Aug11:41 amEST

Hammerin' the Top

The first monthly chart, below, is of the current Nasdaq-100 Index. The arrow points to the massive candlestick currently forming for the month of August, 2024. Even with two weeks left of trading before the candlestick is complete we know we will have a massive price range, gauging the sheer size of the candle. As we have been noting here and...

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16Aug2:42 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/16/24 {Video}

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15Aug12:26 pmEST

Jump Around

With a week to go before the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gets underway from August 22-24, markets are jumping higher off strong retail sales this morning.  Since the beginning of last week's sizable gap down we have seen all minor potential resistance areas prove futile, as bulls reverted to the old playbook of...

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14Aug2:26 pmEST

One's Eyes Can Be Deceived

"One's eyes can be deceived. We see what we believe, not the other way around." -V.M. Varga, Fargo, Season 3  ARKK is sporting an almost too-perfect short setup, seen below on the updated daily chart.  Despite, or perhaps because of, Cathie Wood's latest buying spree the technicals have not improved the overall broken charts on multiple...

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13Aug11:40 amEST

Speak of the (Venti) Devil

In yesterday's note we discussed waiting for a rally  in Starbucks before looking to attack the short side again potentially into 2025.  Consistent with this market, however, everything--and I mean everything--seems to get pulled forward on the bull side.  Specifically, Starbucks just effectively plucked Chipotle's highly acclaimed CEO . ...

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12Aug12:07 pmEST

Here's to Hoping Starbucks Rallies More

...but it's not what bulls ultimately want.  After lagging the broad market and most large consumer names badly for well over a year now it should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone with experience on Wall Street to see activist investor Starboard Value take a stake in Starbucks.  On the monthly chart, updated below, we can see SBUX...

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09Aug3:09 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/09/24 {Video}

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