MarketChess

18Jun11:59 amEST

Amid the Daily Melt-Up, Homebuilders Are Done

Despite beating estimates, homebuilder Lennar (first daily chart, below) is being sold fairly aggressively on lowered forward guidance.  After an epic rally from last Halloween 2023 into April of this year, the XHB (second daily chart, below) sector ETF for the homebuilders finally cooled off. Many assumed it was a mere pauses which refreshes...

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17Jun12:45 pmEST

The Curious Case of Bifurcation

Great visual, below, of just how bifurcated this market has become. Bifurcation is a concept that we have noted with Members in more depth. Simply put, it refers to the market losing its discipline beyond the standard "winners versus losers" you often see in capitalism. Instead, when the winners (tech, the blue line) become narrow and crowded...

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14Jun3:11 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/14/24 {Video}

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13Jun2:21 pmEST

Two Firms Getting Their Lunches Eaten

Ford, upstaged by GM, and United Airlines, upstaged by Delta and others, both look like actionable short ideas into weakness, as seen on their respective daily charts, updated below. UAL looks like a head and shoulders top brewing, while Ford is breaking down from a bear flag, today.  Overall, the market is still hinging on the runaway melt-up...

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12Jun11:08 amEST

Summer Break or Summer Breakdown

Equities are exuberant this morning off a slightly cool CPI print, namely the small caps, Nasdaq, and rate-sensitive sectors. We still have the FOMC at 2pm EST, followed by a Powell press conference, which makes this rally all the more euphoric given the total lack of respect for any risk which may present itself later today.  Still, bulls...

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11Jun11:32 amEST

It Ain't Just the Regional Banks

Not only are the regional banks, housed in the KRE sector ETF, a lingering issue conveniently ignored by equity and credit bulls alike, but now we have the larger banks weakening alongside them.  Yesterday we saw the KRE act poorly at prior support and largely unnoticed as NVDA, the FOMC, oil, and other topics grabbed headlines. Today we have...

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10Jun11:19 amEST

Literal Diamonds in the Rough

Shares of Diamond Offshore are popping by more than 9% as I write this on the back of a buyout offer from Noble Energy  this morning. Both firms are offshore rig contractors, with NE bigger than DO.  Interestingly, shares of NE are higher, too, which is not the typical arbitrage play in mergers & acquisitions--The acquiring firm usually gets...

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07Jun1:33 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/07/24 {Video}

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06Jun12:27 pmEST

Everything Works in Cycles

I recently read an article which noted that Automats are on the verge of a comeback  in New York City. It would not surprise me to see laundromats pop up in more volume, too, as washer/dryer units in homes and apartments inevitably break from old age, wear and tear, and during times of inflation coupled with potentially slowing economic...

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05Jun11:04 amEST

I. Was. Front-Running!

In many respects this particular stock market has turned into one, massive, front-running machine. While I understand many will counter that equities have always been a discounting mechanism, which I tend to largely agree with, this regime has featured a nonstop effort to price in any and all bullish outcomes to the extreme max.  Not only have...

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