If the CPI Report Don't Fit, You Must Submit

22Apr12:48 pmEST

Shaking the Tree

Equities are kicking off an extremely busy week of earnings and macro news with a relief rally from near-term oversold conditions arrived at after the sharp selloff in the Nasdaq into last Friday. Commodities are mostly getting sold, with the exception of natural gas and some lagging ags like wheat, which probably illustrates the correlations...

21Apr10:46 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/21/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

19Apr2:35 pmEST

War Was Never Part of My Bear Case

While it may be tempting to play geopolitical expert and go play-by-play all night with headlines out of the Middle East, I believe it is a mistake for bears to hang their hats on WWIII as a critical part of their case. From my perch the more market-relevant development has been the rally and sticktoitiveness of rates, especially on the 10-Year...

18Apr2:08 pmEST

Now We See How Much of a Leader Apple Remains

In a testament to just how rabid the animal spirits have become on Wall Street these days, the glaring weakness in Apple in 2024, heretofore, has barely put a dent in the broad market for all of winter and a fair amount of Q2. No, for all of Q1 the likes of NVDA and SMCI, not to mention Magnificent 7 peers like MSFT META NFLX, and others,...

17Apr11:52 amEST

One DJT is More Important Than the Other DJT

During this election year, especially, amid the news flow and court proceedings it is completely understandable why the Trump Media new ticker, DJT, would garner plenty of attention from traders and even Main Street casual market watchers alike. However, from my perch the other DJT, which stands for Dow Jones Transportation Average ticker, on...

16Apr3:10 pmEST

Sending Out an SOS on the SPR

It has been a tedious, choppy, back-and-forth session for the most part today. Apple is notably weak and in danger of giving up all of its recent bounce. And that seem especially bearish given how so many folks seemed hell-bent on precisely calling the bottom in the name to bet on considerable, imminent upside. Powell gave some hawkish remarks...

15Apr11:25 amEST

Don't Lead Me On

While I am certainly no stranger to the variance (volatility) associated with all forms of speculation and gambling, the sheer amount of gaps-up-and-then-fight-to-fade-all-day we have seen in this market rivals anything I have ever seen. Over the weekend I went back in time and studied the price action from the 1970s on as many timeframes as I...

14Apr11:32 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/14/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

12Apr12:28 pmEST

Giving Me the Iran-Around Sue

Purely from a market perspective, we may need to gear up for another weekend of the Iran Runaround game, with threats of attacks on Israel supposedly imminent, which always seem to be postponed. As it stands now, the VIX and many stocks are taking the threat seriously, on top of the JPM earnings selloff with CEO Dimon sounding the alarm bells...

11Apr12:28 pmEST

If the CPI Report Don't Fit, You Must Submit

After yesterday morning's red-hot CPI report, bulls are now latching onto a cool headline PPI print this morning with (oddly) "seasonally adjusted" lower gas prices, even though gasoline has clearly been rising. At any rate (no pun intended), the Nasdaq is leading today's bounce even as both rates and the VIX are higher as I write this. Energy...