Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/25/23 {Video}

07Jul11:52 amEST

The Fed Checked Out of Inflation

But they can't ever leave. Despite a cooler jobs report this morning than the ADP data yesterday implied, fears of another Fed rate hike later this month remain very much in play. Small caps are trying to shrug that off by bouncing back from yesterday's selloff. However, I am looking for $186 (just above spot price) on the IWM ETF for the...

06Jul10:49 amEST

I Had to Get it on, Man; Inflation Was Making a Move

Prior comparisons to bull runs in stocks amid higher rates miss the mark insofar as the debt-to-GDP ratio being in the stratosphere this time around, not to mention a prolonged period of QE/ZIRP/"stimmies" policies enabling plenty of companies to not only survive but thrive when they otherwise would not have lasted a year or two in normalized...

05Jul1:36 pmEST

Rates Don't Matter; Its Cool, Guys

Coming off the holiday, and in front of the Fed Minutes at the bottom of the hour, we have rates on the 10-Year Note zooming up beyond 3.9% as I write this. Equities are mixed, with the Nasdaq turning in another too-cool-for-school session so far, completely ignoring the spike in rates. Bulls are pointing to this as even more evidence that both...

02Jul7:57 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/02/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

30Jun1:42 pmEST

Dress Those Windows

To follow-up on our discussion about Apple from earlier this week, the premier stock in the world just surpassed $3 trillion in market cap today on a gap up above an incredibly steep rising channel (daily chart, below, highlights all of this). Once again, you are talking about a stock at trading thirty times forward earnings, with slowing...

29Jun10:43 amEST

Higher for Longer Until "Something" Breaks

With stronger than expected GDP, uniform passing of stress tests by banks, and weekly jobless claims posting the biggest drop in twenty months, bulls seem to be in the "have our cake and eat it, too" mindset. However, in economics there is always a price to be paid. Here, rates must go higher, even as Powell and his band of merry printers at...

28Jun1:04 pmEST

It All Comes Down to Apple, Buffett

How is this for drama? With CNBC on an "Apple $3 trillion market cap alert," the stock is trading at roughy thirty times forward earnings (and a PEG of 4) and has been a one-way melt-up machine in 2023. The AAPL monthly chart, below, shows one of the most glaring bearish RSI divergences to price (bottom pane) you will ever see for a stock this...

27Jun11:12 amEST

It's Pretty; It's So Pretty

Consider this another friendly reminder of an attractive pattern in a critical asset class, with few eyes on said pattern. The updated monthly chart (below) for TNX, the Index for Rates on the 10-year ("40" equates to 4% on this Index, for example) shows us a beautiful multi-month bull flag which continues to fly well under-the-radar of folks...

26Jun11:24 amEST

Holy Meta Gap Man, Zuck

After getting absolutely throttled in 2022, Meta (formerly Facebook) has staged one of the more epic one way melt-ups in recent memory for a stock its size coming off a thrashing. On the updated META daily chart below, two things seem noteworthy: 1) The steepness of the uptrend for prolonged period of time for, again, such a mega cap name, and...

25Jun10:02 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/25/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...