A Market Reflects Its Fed

26Sep11:36 amEST

No Consolidation Lasts Forever

With the month and quarter coming to an end this Friday by the closing bell, have a look if you would, please, at the month and quarterly charts, respectively below, for the IWM (ETF for the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index). You are taking about uniquely extended periods of consolidation, to the point where many are assuming--rather...

25Sep11:16 amEST

You See Bottoms; I See Complacency

Stocks are slowly dripping lower with modest intraday bounce attempts, for now at least. However, the noteworthy action this morning is that both rates and the Dollar are spiking. I have not been shy at all in voicing my view that, ultimately, a new bond secular bear market is underway and that will be the undoing of the great equity chase...

24Sep11:04 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/24/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

22Sep1:35 pmEST

Call Me Kat; Call Me Dead Kitty Kat Bounce

I suppose I could cherry-pick the weakness in NFLX TSLA or even the banks. But to my eye, as one of our Members has been tracking closely, the persistent weakness in airlines after previously being adored by bulls as a sign of the vibrant economy seems telling. On the updated JETS weekly chart, below, the mid-July reversal we highlighted in...

21Sep10:29 amEST

No Bottom for Alibaba

It is rather noticeable that China stocks received tons of cheers by momentum traders into each rally over the last few quarters, only to see said rallies frizzle out each and every time. What that tells me, gauging the BABA monthly chart, below, in addition to the FXI KWEB ETFs, is that China stocks have not bottomed despite their steep...

20Sep1:12 pmEST

What if it is the Pause Which Refreshes the Bond Selloff?

As we know, Jerome Powell is more than capable of being bullied into a corner. Case in point: Back in 2018 Powell was a brand new Fed Chair. He came out swinging with rate hikes and generally adopting a hard money approach, especially compared to the Bernanke and Yellen years. Then-President Trump ultimately made a point to publicly turn the...

19Sep1:47 pmEST

It Worked, And No One Cares

Lo and behold, the Home Depot bearish head and shoulders top, spanning mid-to-late summer as highlighted on the HD daily chart, below, triggered in a powerful way lower over the past few sessions. And no one cared. Bulls assume support will hold, and long-term players dismiss this move as merely noise. But given HD is not only in the Dow but...

18Sep1:12 pmEST

Here's Why I'm Short the XLF

Using one of the levered bear ETFs to go long, on Friday I alerted Members that I effectively went short the XLF (ETF for the financial sector's larger players, as the KRE houses the regional banks). So why not just short the regional banks instead? Sure, they do seem to be in trouble. However, in terms of risk to reward ratio, we have some...

17Sep10:41 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/17/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

15Sep11:43 amEST

A Market Reflects Its Fed

Just as a sports team eventually reflects its coach, and even a military unit reflects its squad leader, so too does a market eventually reflect its Fed's policies. Years of laughing in the face of headwinds, poor technical action, and even outright alarming news in the market reflects an arrogant Federal Reserve who wants nothing more than to...