MarketChess

12Nov3:31 pmEST

Why the Pain Trade in Rates is Still Higher

Yesterday was a bond market holiday. However, TLT (ETF for Treasuries) still traded. In previous years I have seen bond bulls use this opportunity as a free pass of sorts to rally the ETF (as this ETF goes up, rates go down, generally speaking). But that did not happen yesterday on Veterans Day. And now today we have TLT in the midst of...

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11Nov1:32 pmEST

Three Card Monte Market

There are so many moving parts to the current market, with aggressive daily rotations and dispersion, that it can drive one mad to try to time every near-term top and bottom across the board. At times it really does seem like a street hustle of three card monte. Overall, I still view the underperformance of semis and some mega cap tech as a...

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10Nov11:13 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 11/10/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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07Nov3:41 pmEST

Back in the Metals, Planning to Add

To keep things actionable around here, precious metals and derivative miners seem to be finding a bid after their recent harsh shakeouts. Fed Chair Powell's presser today featured more of the same from him, downplaying inflation risks and severely disrespecting the possibility of the dreaded stagflationary environment like the 1970s, with...

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06Nov2:27 pmEST

I Bet You Wish You Had a Whirlpool Now

We have tons of violent moves across asset classes today on the back of the Trump victory overnight. However, I maintain my view that the bond market selloff, especially on the long end of the curve, will only prove more significant (and more menacing) over time--Case in point, we have the IYR getting pounded today amid the explosive overall...

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05Nov3:08 pmEST

Election

Election Day is understandably front and center today and of late, even when it comes to markets and interpreting the various moves by markets (in this case, the frequent rallies) as being politically-motivated.  Still, I keep returning to the fact that we have an overlooked FOMC later this week, with the decision released on Thursday...

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04Nov3:15 pmEST

A Big Hurdle to Clear, But Well Worth It

With everything going on this week it is going to be easy to overlook potential false breakdowns in both oil and natural gas, respectively below on their ETF's daily charts. As you can see both oil and natty have been abysmal in recent weeks. But today natty is rallying nicely while oil is continuing to climb since finding buyers late last...

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01Nov3:25 pmEST

Afternoon Update 11/01/24 {Video}

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31Oct2:02 pmEST

Leaving Las Vegas Without Spending So Much

Casino operator MGM is being sold aggressively today despite trying to sound optimistic on its earnings call after reporting record net revenue, pointing to long-term opportunities in China, Japan, and online with BetMGM.  Be that as it may, the firm missed on bottom line earnings and is being punished in kind by the market.   For our purposes,...

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30Oct12:39 pmEST

SMCI: There's Never Just One Cucaracha

"We are in the golden age of fraud" -Jim Chanos ( See Also Here ) Shares of the once red-hot hardware AI play Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) are down by about a third of their value today as the lead auditor of the company, Ernst & Young LLP, resigned as its registered public accounting firm. The inference many are drawing is one of...

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