MarketChess

15Oct2:54 pmEST

Get Your ASML Out of the Road

Earlier in the session the Dutch-based semiconductor ASML saw its earnings number leak online. The firm cut sales and guidance numbers, to the point where the CEO felt it necessary to try to assuage fears from market players. Still, as I write this into the final hour we have ASML down 17%. Previously, we noted ASML as an actionable short idea...

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14Oct2:05 pmEST

A Tell on the Bond Market Pain Trade

Today is Columbus Day, which is federal holiday in the U.S.. And that means government offices and banks are closed. The bond market is also closed for the holiday, but the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are both open and functioning normally today. Well, at least mechanically they appear to be.  As far as sentiment, it is more of the same...

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11Oct3:01 pmEST

Afternoon Update 10/11/24 {Video}

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10Oct12:02 pmEST

I See the Stag and the Flation

"I was around for stagflation, and it was 10% unemployment, it was high-single-digit inflation. Right now we have 3% growth, which is pretty solid growth, I would, say by any measure, and we have inflation running under 3%,” said Powell, who is right about growth if looking at final sales to domestic purchasers, and correct about inflation if...

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09Oct2:20 pmEST

A Wounded Wolf is Especially Dangerous

As we saw with China plays over the last few weeks there is tons of risk in any and all crowded trades in a bifurcated market coming unglued at the drop of a hat. While I believe that day is coming as far as crowded longs in the Mag7 names, semiconductors, and other assorted plays like CAVA COST PLTR WING, among others, it of course applies to...

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08Oct1:31 pmEST

Judging That First Real Dip

Amid renewed political will in America for nuclear energy to help power AI, on top of continuous Middle East escalations, we have seen uranium stocks enjoy an impressive early-autumn trading period as a group.  In the last few sessions we finally got some dips to judge, insofar as whether the sector's notorious reputation for unforgiving...

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07Oct10:58 amEST

Excuse Me, I Believe You Have My FEMA Stapler

Rates on the 10-Year Note are now back above 4%, as The Fed's jumbo rate cut on September 18th continues to look increasingly vulnerable to the bond market finally pushing back on "anything-goes" central banking policies over a period of decades. True, it has only been a few weeks, whereas several more months of this pushback from the bond...

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04Oct2:10 pmEST

Afternoon Update 10/04/24 {Video}

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03Oct2:59 pmEST

Let Me Explain Sumin' to You

The complacency in both markets and society at-large regarding the longshoreman strike is extreme but not surprising considering we are in the midst of one of the most forgiving markets in modern history, coupled with a generation or two who has not seen a crippling nationwide strike's deleterious effects on the economy and morale.  Putting to...

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02Oct11:29 amEST

Back in Town

After taking a few months off this summer to allow the initial rate cut euphoria to run its course, I am now "back in town" in the bond market and betting the short side on Treasuries, looking for higher rates in the belly and long end of the curve.  Much like the 1970s with the oil embargo and wage/price spiral, we now have several seemingly...

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