MarketChess

19Aug11:41 amEST

Hammerin' the Top

The first monthly chart, below, is of the current Nasdaq-100 Index. The arrow points to the massive candlestick currently forming for the month of August, 2024. Even with two weeks left of trading before the candlestick is complete we know we will have a massive price range, gauging the sheer size of the candle. As we have been noting here and...

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16Aug2:42 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/16/24 {Video}

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15Aug12:26 pmEST

Jump Around

With a week to go before the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gets underway from August 22-24, markets are jumping higher off strong retail sales this morning.  Since the beginning of last week's sizable gap down we have seen all minor potential resistance areas prove futile, as bulls reverted to the old playbook of...

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14Aug2:26 pmEST

One's Eyes Can Be Deceived

"One's eyes can be deceived. We see what we believe, not the other way around." -V.M. Varga, Fargo, Season 3  ARKK is sporting an almost too-perfect short setup, seen below on the updated daily chart.  Despite, or perhaps because of, Cathie Wood's latest buying spree the technicals have not improved the overall broken charts on multiple...

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13Aug11:40 amEST

Speak of the (Venti) Devil

In yesterday's note we discussed waiting for a rally  in Starbucks before looking to attack the short side again potentially into 2025.  Consistent with this market, however, everything--and I mean everything--seems to get pulled forward on the bull side.  Specifically, Starbucks just effectively plucked Chipotle's highly acclaimed CEO . ...

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12Aug12:07 pmEST

Here's to Hoping Starbucks Rallies More

...but it's not what bulls ultimately want.  After lagging the broad market and most large consumer names badly for well over a year now it should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone with experience on Wall Street to see activist investor Starboard Value take a stake in Starbucks.  On the monthly chart, updated below, we can see SBUX...

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09Aug3:09 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/09/24 {Video}

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08Aug11:17 amEST

Daily Dose of Perspective

One of the more interesting aspects about a market which sees increasingly violently and random price swings is that you see folks try to claim victory for each and every single move. Mind you, I, too, was once a young man in this business so I understand the temptation. But even some veterans cannot resist the urge to be on top of every single...

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07Aug12:37 pmEST

Close Together Doesn't Mean Best Friends

In just a few trading sessions the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index went from multi-year highs as the hottest rotation plays in the market down to multi-month lows. The IWM, ETF for the Russell (below, on the updated daily chart), shows the small caps violently testing the 200-day moving average (yellow line) on Monday before bouncing up to...

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06Aug12:20 pmEST

Vol of Vols

Looking at the updated hourly chart for the Nasdaq, below, the rally today seems rather rudimentary as far as relief bounces go in the context of downtrends (on this timeframe, of course). We are drifting up to the 20-period hourly chart moving average and still making lower highs and lower lows by price over the last few weeks.  However, bulls...

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