Look Beneath Support

26Feb12:59 pmEST

Quality Control Friday at the Office

After filling the opening gap on the S&P 500 Index, stocks meandered through the morning and are trying to wake up again as we speak. Some issues like CMG MCD SBUX are lagging, as are emerging markets, while financials and biotech catch a bid. The action below the surface is fairly muted, and not yet some type of broad-based vicious short...

26Feb10:51 amEST

A Slice of European Humble Pastry Pie

Calling the near-term direction of the Euro of late has required a large slice of humble European pastry pie, perhaps even more than equities, as the Euro has been resilient and featured a vast array of wicked short squeezes in recent months. We have not been playing the Euro much since last summer, but we are still monitoring the overall...

25Feb5:13 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 02/25/16 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

25Feb3:26 pmEST

First Time Long Time

Working our way through the final hour of trading today, the S&P 500 Index has now tested its 50-day simple moving average for the first time in 2016. In and of itself, that is not inherently bullish, though a close above 1945 today likely continues to put the heat on shorts holding and hoping for an imminent rollover. It is worth noting the...

25Feb12:53 pmEST

Let's Restore the Three Day Waiting Rule

After the complete disaster and dodgy excuses by the firm's management in the wake of the Restoration Hardware earnings release and conference call, shares of RH are down more than 28% as I write this. On a slow market day, the temptation may be to rush in and stick in a bid for some type of reversion higher. However, just as with DATA LNKD in...

25Feb10:33 amEST

The Fog Not Yet Lifted

Despite yesterday's pronounced reversal higher in stocks and crude oil, the attempt to follow-through higher this morning has been a sluggish one. Crude is red as we speak, with USO down more than 2% and large cap energy stocks lagging the market noticeably. Even as the Japanese Yen comes in, stocks are not yet taking the ball and running with...

24Feb5:09 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 02/24/16 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

24Feb3:31 pmEST

Holding Serve

An afternoon surge free and clear above the respective 20-day simple moving averages on the major stock indices helped to negate any notion of bears rolling this market over for an imminent move to new lows today. Precious metals and miners, along with Treasuries and the Yen, are near or at the lows of the day as we speak, likely inspiring...

24Feb12:32 pmEST

Right Down the Line

The bounce in equities later in the morning today coincided with a bounce in both the Dollar/Yen and especially crude oil, post-inventory report. Headed into the afternoon, we are keeping tabs on the 15-minute chart of the SPY, seen below. Note the 20-period moving average (orange line) guiding price down in recent sessions. I suspect if this...

24Feb11:01 amEST

Look Beneath Support

The divergence in recent sessions, dating back to last week, between a weak Dollar/Yen cross (meaning a strong Yen) and equities bouncing along may be recalibrating today in favor of the Yen's dominant position as being one of the premier "risk off" currencies in the world today. As such, with the USD/JPY losing 112 overnight, equities are...