MarketChess

11Apr12:28 pmEST

If the CPI Report Don't Fit, You Must Submit

After yesterday morning's red-hot CPI report, bulls are now latching onto a cool headline PPI print this morning with (oddly) "seasonally adjusted" lower gas prices, even though gasoline has clearly been rising.  At any rate (no pun intended), the Nasdaq is leading today's bounce even as both rates and the VIX are higher as I write this. Energy...

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10Apr12:35 pmEST

Inflation Whiplash

Another hot CPI report this morning, with emphasis on gasoline and shelter prices, has doves running for cover as rates on the 10-Year push above 4.5%. An earlier dip-buy attempt in equities seemed initially convincing but has since sputtered.  Overall, inflation looks to be staging another leg higher for a kind of whiplash effect off what many...

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09Apr1:00 pmEST

Here's the Thing About Rip Van Winkle

...even he woke up, eventually.  You may notice that the monthly chart for the premier copper miner, Freeport McMoran, below, looks an awful lot like the monthly chart of the silver metal. Both charts are threatening to emerge from multi-year symmetrical triangles within the context of decade-plus sideways/dead money periods.  And just as Rip...

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08Apr12:25 pmEST

Cutting it High and Tight

On the updated daily charts below, for CLF and CMC respectively, note how the stocks are flagging "high and tight" after prior run-ups above all moving averages.  For these two commodity stocks, this is solid price action and puts us on watch for another move higher especially if the commodity complex at-large continues to enjoy rotation.  To...

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05Apr2:11 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/05/24 {Video}

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04Apr3:16 pmEST

Changes In Latitudes, Changes In Attitudes

After being one of the undisputed monsters off the pre-Halloween low, AMD is now displaying serious signs of changes in latitudes and changes in price attitudes .  More importantly, the relevant issues for us is whether the large semiconductor play is functioning as a leader to the downside now, too, after clearly being one of the leaders to...

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03Apr1:47 pmEST

Looking for a 5x4 By Memorial Day

Powell gave remarks at Stanford University earlier today where he is still sticking to his guns that we are merely seeing a "bumpy" path down to 2% target inflation. In other words, the recent data are not swaying him off his rate cut plan for later this year, just yet.  Powell and his cohorts at The Fed have been awfully stubborn on this...

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02Apr12:25 pmEST

It's How Civilizations Fall

The SOFR is an acronym which stands for, "Secured Overnight Financing Rate," and is the replacement to LIBOR (which stood for "London Interbank Offer Rate"). LIBOR was deemed too prone to manipulation (try to hold your laughter) and thus the SOFR calculation was tweaked a bit from the LIBOR. But, essentially, SOFR acts like LIBOR did, as...

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01Apr11:12 amEST

April Bond Fool in the Rain

I almost never headline a blog post with a chart. Typically, I use a photo relevant to the title or body of the post.  However, and this certainly is no April Fools' Day joke, TBT (ultra-SHORT ETF for Treasuries, essentially a bet on higher rates by being long TBT) has been the mainstay in my portfolio for over fifteen months now with Members....

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31Mar11:26 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/31/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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