MarketChess

02Oct11:29 amEST

Back in Town

After taking a few months off this summer to allow the initial rate cut euphoria to run its course, I am now "back in town" in the bond market and betting the short side on Treasuries, looking for higher rates in the belly and long end of the curve.  Much like the 1970s with the oil embargo and wage/price spiral, we now have several seemingly...

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01Oct12:52 pmEST

Any Storm in a Port

Escalations in the Middle East are compounding the effects of a major strike in many of American's ports today to kick off the new month and final quarter of trading. As a result, the Nasdaq is leading markets lower, off by around 2% as I write this.  Apple's breakout attempt higher yesterday is reversing sharply, with the iconic name down by...

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30Sep12:39 pmEST

The Ruins of Quarters Past

Today's closing bell marks the end of the month of September as well as the third quarter of trading, making the quarterly candlesticks on charts fully complete.  For a lesson in history, consider the quarterly candles that Cisco, the star of the dot-com bubble twenty-five years ago, was sporting at the turn of the century on the first...

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27Sep3:14 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/27/24 {Video}

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26Sep1:49 pmEST

Basic Hurricane Plays

"Helene" is currently a Category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 105 miles per hour, and is expected to make landfall this evening along Florida's northern and western regions.  Even to the most seasoned weather and hurricane experts there is a wide degree of unknowns regarding just how bad things could get, or whether the entire ordeal could...

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25Sep12:53 pmEST

Leaders Lead in Both Directions

Any pretense of Goldman Sachs being the premier banking house on Wall Street (recall 2008, for example, with Warren Buffett buying perpetual preferred shares to ward off short sellers at the depth of the crisis) has long been disposed of, as JPMorgan Chase and its highly visible CEO Jamie Dimon is clearly on top. JPM is the largest-weighted...

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24Sep1:21 pmEST

Sweet and Sour Stimulus

Overnight we saw that China announced its most significant stimulus package since pandemic. In response, China stocks traded as ADRs in America, such as BABA BIDU JD NTES PDD, just to name a few, are all gapping up hard as many shorts are likely caught offsides on top of the usual momentum chasers piling on the long side.  While I disagree with...

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23Sep11:47 amEST

Shorts Don't Want to Land on No Three Mile Island

But I don't want to land in the New York City I don't want to land in Mexico I don't want want to land on no Three Mile Island I don't want to see my skin aglow. -"Volcano," Jimmy Buffett With approximately 25% of its float (the shares outstanding) held short, and a better technical chart than most uranium/nuclear-related plays,...

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20Sep3:09 pmEST

Afternoon Update 09/20/24 {Video}

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19Sep3:35 pmEST

The Surest of Things

Bulls are certainty feeling one's oats today, as the ambitious rate cut by The Fed yesterday brought a Wall Street cheer overnight in the futures market and led to a sizable gap higher today. We do have a Bank of Japan meeting underway, which could shake things up a bit tomorrow.  However, the overwhelming sentiment currently seems to be that...

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