MarketChess

18Mar3:43 pmEST

The Party's Over, Nerds

Headed into the FOMC tomorrow we have stocks pulling back. Overall, we are flopping around as we expected with Members early this week. The true test will be how the market interprets The Fed's tone and tenor tomorrow regarding future policy moves, meaning how dovish they appear. In the meantime, shares of Reddit (weekly chart, first below) are...

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17Mar12:41 pmEST

One Sniff Will Last You the Rest of Your Journey

The VIX (which is said to measure fear from the options market, or at least an options market taken by surprise of events) chart, below on the daily timeframe, dates back to last summer. But we also know that since the pandemic any and all spikes above the 20 level have been but a whiff, of which we got a sniff and resumed the bull journey in...

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14Mar3:14 pmEST

Afternoon Update 03/14/25 {Video}

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13Mar10:34 amEST

Cooler Prints Prevailed...or Did They?

Earlier this morning a cool PPI print followed up yesterday's cool CPI. On the surface, many headlines boasted about inflation coming down and Fed rate cuts being more likely and numerous this year.  However, market pundits are still overlooking the reaction by the bond market. Rates on the 10-Year Note, for example, are clearly higher than...

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11Mar3:03 pmEST

Can You Handle the Drama and Chaos?

Markets are whipping around again today amid swirling geopolitical headlines, as many traders are beginning to become exasperated by all of the drama and chaos. Of course, it is a natural reaction--We are human, after all (well, at least most of us, with exception of the algos). As I write this, we are seeing a late-afternoon squeeze in the...

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10Mar12:38 pmEST

False Bottoms and False Prophets

It looks like Twitter (or "X," with the site having technical issues) is down with the market today, as Friday afternoon's upside reversal on Fed Chair Jay Powell's upbeat remarks about the economy is now falling flat.  For many years now, the market has given more than the benefit of the doubt to Powell. He always seemed to have the Midas...

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07Mar3:41 pmEST

Afternoon Update 03/07/25 {Video}

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06Mar3:29 pmEST

I Know a Dirty Crew When I See It

Headed into tomorrow morning's jobs report we have equities swooning again today. Bottom-callers expected the 200-day moving averages on the senior indices to provide more immediate support. But the battle wages on as the tariff headlines become more indecisive and murky by the day. In addition, some earnings disasters like MDB and MRVL are not...

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05Mar3:00 pmEST

A Thousand Blows Could Ruin the Art of the Deal

The "now-you-see-it, now-you-don't" game of tariffs being played by the Trump Administration reminds me an awful lot of The Fed's work on inflation in recent years: Talking tough at certain times but quickly retreating at the first sign of market dislocation.  But here is the real risk: Markets eventually become punch-drunk from all of the...

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04Mar12:47 pmEST

It's Only Natural

After years of countless dips getting bought aggressively, "V"-shaping to fresh highs in short order even in the face of seemingly insurmountable bearish headwinds, it is only natural for shorts to now be concerned about getting caught up in a vicious squeeze at any moment. Similarly, it is only natural for bulls to now fear missing out on yet...

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