MarketChess

14Jan12:49 pmEST

The Danger is No Joke

A cooler PPI print this morning initially ignited a rally in stocks. However, as I write this the rally faded to red, with tech giving up the ghost within the first hour or so of trading. Monsters like META and NVDA are notable laggards.  Further, as we noted with Members in the Morning Prep Video, bonds never really got behind the idea that...

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13Jan2:24 pmEST

An Undisputed Consensus Emerges

Without question, among bond market experts and general market pundits, there is a clear and unequivocal consensus brewing that if rates on the 10-Year Note touch near 5% again, as they did back around Halloween 2023, then it will mark a definitive top in rates just like it did back then.  Naturally, I take the other side of that view, as I...

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10Jan11:27 amEST

Live By the MAGS, Die By the MAGS

After forming a series of lower highs since mid-December, the Magnificent 7 ETF, first chart below on the daily timeframe, is breaching well-defined support this morning. The second chart, below, for reference is of the S&P 500 Index daily and also shows a support breakdown so far today, indicative of a head and shoulders bearish top...

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08Jan1:19 pmEST

The Last Hurrah

The November through mid-December surge in retail stocks, seen below on the XRT sector ETF daily chart, certainly took me by surprise. As you can see, however, that rally has now been mostly erased.  Further, long-term retail laggards like DG DLTR FL KSS NKE, among many others in the sector, continue to flounder.  Overall, the XRT head and...

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07Jan1:19 pmEST

Beating You to the Punch

With 2025 underway it is a good idea to look at post-election year seasonality. Courtesy of @AlmanacTrader on X, below, we can see the 1949-2023 data set for all post-election year patterns in the S&P 500 Index.  Clearly, the black and red lines are most relevant, with the incumbent party losing.  As you can see February is a uniquely weak...

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06Jan12:20 pmEST

I am a Nuclear Landman

Natural gas and nuclear are red-hot not just today but also of late, overall. We have been focused on these two groups, both the commodity and underlying stocks, with Members. And now we have the nuclear reactor plays flashing strong signs of staging fresh legs higher, be it GEV NNE OKLO SMR, just to name a few. Meanwhile, natural gas is...

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03Jan3:17 pmEST

Afternoon Update 01/03/25 {Video}

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02Jan1:13 pmEST

Pick a Side, Any Side

If the first trading session of 2025, so far, is any indication of what is to come this year we are in for a doozy of a tape. As of this early-afternoon, we have seen a plethora of whipsaws, squeezes, fades, before the market finally sold off aggressively during the New York lunch hour. Granted, we are still technically within the "Santa Rally"...

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30Dec2:08 pmEST

A Forever Home on the Range

It has been tough for me to be steadfastly bullish on much within equities for a good while, given the bifurcation of the asset classes containing many classical elements of a mania. However, we have been consistently bullish in recent quarters on the prospects of natural gas and nuclear names emerging. The key point there is that both of these...

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26Dec1:27 pmEST

If I Told You This, Would You Believe Me?

September 16th, 2024.  That is the last time that shares of Reddit, seen below on the updated daily chart, tested their 20-day simple moving average (orange line).  The 20-day moving average is a short-term reference point for swing readers. As an example, NVIDIA has not tested its 200-day moving average since January 2023, but the 200-day is...

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