Blog
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Houthis Don't Surf!
As we have noted since March, it is virtually impossible to successfully fight to win a war while also sweating every single tick across several markets. The latest version of this theory was put into praxis again this weekend, as President Trump reversed his own decision a few…
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Afternoon Update 09/18/26 {Video}
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Chopped
As difficult as it is to believe and trade through on a daily basis, the Nasdaq has indeed gone entirely sideways for more than four months at this point, as illustrated by the Nasdaq-100 Index weekly chart, below. The bullish interpretation of this action is that we have…
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Slow Playing It
With well over a 90% probability of The Fed hiking by 25bps later today, unless Kevin Warsh and the Committee intend to break an extensive pattern of following market expectations we can expect a higher Federal Funds rate by day's end. However, as we noted yesterday and in recent…
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A Big Round Number Fetish
Rates on the 10-Year Note popped above 5% for the first time in years this morning, in effect rivaling multi-decade highs, before reversing to red and dipping down to 4.94% as I write this. As we have noted here and with Members over the years, markets have an odd tendency to…
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Afternoon Update 09/11/26 {Video}
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You Haven't Gotten Away With it Yet
It has been five years since I stuck my neck out with a strongly held view that Treasuries had topped out, back in the late-summer/autumn of 2021. At the time, very few folks even acknowledged that a top in Treasuries could be possible. After all, we had the Jerome Powell Fed…
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Looking at You Sideways
The old saying in markets is that, "The trend is your friend until it bends in the end." When applied to real-time markets, things naturally get murky. After all, it is really "bending" or just a bull market reset? Like most things on Wall Street, it winds up being much more of…
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Made Hands Intact
My default view each year around Labor Day is to implore readers and Members to exercise extreme patience for up to a week (some years even a bit more than that) in order for the market to regain its feel of the "full squad" back at their trading desks after summer trading. Howev…
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Afternoon Update 09/04/26 {Video}
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Crack the Case When it Matters Most
Despite a rough couple of weeks for gold bullion it is worth reiterating that the yellow metal has tremendously bullish September seasonality. And with Fed Governor Waller just this morning tilting back to the dovish camp regarding the coming FOMC decision, stocks and bonds are…
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You Can Never, Never, Ask Me to Stop Printing
The long end of the curve continues to see rates spike higher. Currently, rates on the 10-Year Note are at eighteen month highs, with multi-decade highs lingering above at 5%. From my perch the consensus is still expecting some type of "TACO" by Trump and/or magical intervention…
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Are You Scared of Chicks with Wicks?
We are in an odd spot seasonally, with summer feeling increasingly "over," despite the fact that today's action very much smacks of summer-like trading with a full week to go before Labor Day weekend (and, of course, summer will not officially end for a few more weeks on…
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Afternoon Update 08/28/26 {Video}
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Badlands
Under the cover of the focus on NVDA today we have the commercial real estate stocks in the IYR ETF (below on the updated daily chart) threatening a breakdown. For a good while now we have profiled the uniquely tedious nature of the IYR price action, between ignoring sticky high…
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Down the Rabbit Hole of Twin Peaks
Despite a sticky hot inflation print this morning, stocks are mostly mixed amid listless action as we work through another late-summer doldrums type of session. That may change, however, with NVIDIA earnings this evening (plus other notable names like CRM) and then Jackson Hole…
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9 to 5 Trading
More summer doldrums type of trading today in this 9 to 5 market (honoring the late, great Dolly Parton). The first daily chart, below, is of Denison, a high beta small cap uranium miner which is outpacing its peers, technically speaking, insofar as being ahead of them pushing…
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The Market from Another Place
Here we are in the dog days of late-August, with oil resilient after a July pullback, the Yen needing a major intervention this summer, and now the bond market rattling the White House to the point where the Treasury Secretary is making moves on top of constant jawboning. And…
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Afternoon Update 08/21/26 {Video}
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Moo Moo Buckaroo
A mere one trading session after the Treasury announced support for the long end of the curve yesterday we have Treasuries lower today as rates on the 10-Year out to the 30-Year move back higher. Beyond that, Treasury Secretary Bessent is out and about with tons of comments…
