Monthly Archives: April 2024

30Apr1:11 pmEST

Occam's Razor Earnings Season

Although the headlines last Thursday evening noted that Microsoft was "surging" after earnings alongside GOOGL, the aftermath has been anything but that for "Mister Softee." As a reminder, MSFT is the largest publicly-traded firm in America, at nearly $3 trillion. A blowout earnings rally in AAPL NVDA, or further rampage in GOOGL may unseat...

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29Apr11:54 amEST

I Refuse to Believe the Fix is In

Watching  Eight Men Out (1988), one of my favorite all-time period piece historical films, again last evening, I thought about some emails I received from readers of late positing that "they" simply will not let the market fall in an election year. If you have seen the film then you know the relevance of considering whether markets are...

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26Apr12:38 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/26/24 {Video}

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25Apr11:48 amEST

NVIDIA: Noise or Nonstop Momentum?

Even with the sharp META selloff, semiconductors are one of the clear morning winners as Zuck and his team emphasized on the conference calls that he will be spending money on AI. Thus, NVIDIA is out in front of the group.  That said, on the updated NVDA daily chart, below, now more than ever it is important to focus on the context of these...

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24Apr11:14 amEST

A Slip 'N Slide Setup

After an auspicious open for bulls on the back of TSLA and TXN earnings rallies, stocks look to finally be noticing the stickiness in rates as we fade into late-morning.  As I write this I see that rates on the 10-Year are above 4.65% and have 4.7% as the next near-term breakout level within shot. In addition, it is hard not to think that 5% is...

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23Apr12:56 pmEST

Maybe He Could Sing But He Couldn't Fly

Stocks continue to take liberties to enjoy a relief bounce in front of many other "Magnificent 7" names reporting earnings this week, be it TSLA tonight or META tomorrow, then GOOGL MSFT on Thursday evening.  You may have noticed more and more folks assuming the bottom is in for equities after the recent 5% dip on the S&P 500. And if the big...

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22Apr12:48 pmEST

Shaking the Tree

Equities are kicking off an extremely busy week of earnings and macro news with a relief rally from near-term oversold conditions arrived at after the sharp selloff in the Nasdaq into last Friday. Commodities are mostly getting sold, with the exception of natural gas and some lagging ags like wheat, which probably illustrates the correlations...

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21Apr10:46 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/21/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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19Apr2:35 pmEST

War Was Never Part of My Bear Case

While it may be tempting to play geopolitical expert and go play-by-play all night with headlines out of the Middle East, I believe it is a mistake for bears to hang their hats on WWIII as a critical part of their case. From my perch the more market-relevant development has been the rally and sticktoitiveness of rates, especially on the 10-Year...

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18Apr2:08 pmEST

Now We See How Much of a Leader Apple Remains

In a testament to just how rabid the animal spirits have become on Wall Street these days, the glaring weakness in Apple in 2024, heretofore, has barely put a dent in the broad market for all of winter and a fair amount of Q2. No, for all of Q1 the likes of NVDA and SMCI, not to mention Magnificent 7 peers like MSFT META NFLX, and others,...

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