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18May3:05 pmEST

Cash First, Ask Questions Later

With many key spots in the market, be it with the Dow (on the DIA ETF daily chart, below) or any number of prominent stocks, giving up multiple sessions worth of gains all at once today, I elected to move back to full cash with Members a few hours ago.  With the exception of a recent ag long I took on late yesterday, I was able to escape with a...

18May10:25 amEST

That's an Excellent Question, Mr. Lombardi

Shares of Target are getting eviscerated after earnings, to the point where no one even bothers to make the Americana joke of "Target or Tar-Jay" with regard to the retailer's pronunciation.  Some broad market jitters off the TGT pounding is not too surprising, though.  However, what is surprising is the action below the surface thus far today....

17May4:23 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 05/17/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

17May10:22 amEST

The Next Maneuver

Tech and bios are among the leaders of this morning's bounce, as the conventional wisdom that this is a mere "bear market rally" seem to be rather dismissive or skeptical of the move. Granted, I myself believe this is a bear market rally. However, I suspect a few more weeks of this type of action, sandwiching Memorial Day Weekend, will shift...

16May10:55 amEST

You Don't Have to Be a Private Eye to Figure it Out

Energy and agricultural products continue to rise this morning despite a mostly red opening for stocks as a group, as The Fed talking heads keep resting their hopes that inflation will magically recede to make their lives easier.  In reality, as The Fed willingly stays miles behind the curve headed into summer, where oil and gasoline demand...

15May10:01 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/15/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

13May10:01 amEST

A Series of Battles

Bear markets often feature a series of battles, even relatively shorter-term duration ones like 2008. We had bear market rallies from March-May 2008, then a pedestrian one over the summer, and even around the time Lehman failed and TARP was passed in September we had ridiculous, convincing squeezes which shocked and scared even the most...

12May11:29 amEST

The First Mover Fallacy in Game Theory

In 1923, Jesse Livermore wrote, “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth---or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” These eighths have cost traders billions of dollars over the years. Over the years, this is a lesson I have tried to learn over and...

11May2:56 pmEST

Reminder: It's a Bear Market, Which Means We Tend to Make New Lows

Part of the nefarious nature of bonafide bear markets (as defined by price below a declining 200-day moving average on the major indices for an extended duration , not the short-lived COVID crash which came and went in a matter of weeks) coming off an extended period of rampant speculative bull market fervor is that they lull even smart,...

11May10:30 amEST

And After All That...

By now, you know about ARKK, earnings blow-ups like U and UPST, inflation, even the Tiger Fund, as do most active market players.  And what we are left with at the moment is some of the most violent price swings you will see even in a bear market, at least one which is not outright crashing. No, instead, we have an epic battle in progress, as...

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