MarketChess

22Nov12:17 pmEST

Almost Time to Take Youse Guys on Again

Say what you will about equities this year. But the fact of the matter is that I have been very much in tune with the bond market, trimming an overweight TBT long (indeed, which had been my largest position by size, which is basically a bet on higher rates that I had been swinging for virtually all of 2023) last month.  At issue now is whether...

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21Nov1:17 pmEST

Got Brine on My Mind

A split amongst retail earnings plays reporting, albeit tilted slightly to the downside, has the XRT retail sector ETF only down marginally today as we head towards Black Friday.  On a personal level, instead of getting hyped up to stand in line at 4am, I prefer to focus on the brining of turkeys and ducks beginning tonight in order to make the...

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20Nov11:49 amEST

This Market Has Narcissistic Personality Disorder

As I grow older I am convinced that about eighty percent of life is not only having the ability to quickly recognize a true narcissist in business and romance, but to also then have the ability to quickly cut ties and distance yourself from that person--Failure to do so has caused much pain and unnecessary suffering to some very good people,...

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19Nov12:09 pmEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 11/19/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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17Nov2:58 pmEST

Ponder This Over a Drink or Ten This Weekend

While fund managers chase the likes of Microsoft (with a forward PE of almost 29 and a $2.77 trillion market cap) on a daily basis into year-end, you will note the uranium mining sector ETF (URA, below on the monthly chart) has been in a bear market for over a decade now. Uranium stocks have been clearly out of favor, with most fund managers...

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16Nov1:00 pmEST

Walmart Doesn't See Such a Soft Landing

Of all the firms to ignore regarding the pulse of working class consumer, WMT seems like it should be last on that last.   And, yet, despite the firm cautioning in front of the holidays , the broad market is not exactly crashing despite flashing red as I write this.  On the quarterly chart for WMT, below, the long-running bearish RSI...

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15Nov11:56 amEST

Two Key Charts

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14Nov10:19 amEST

It's All Good, Man

With virtually every bit of news and development being construed by markets as good news, it is highly likely I will be taking off at least some bearish bets today if we do not see a fade into the closing bell.  Even with this morning's shellacking in rates, they are still considerably higher than where they started the year, which was my main...

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13Nov10:44 amEST

Emerge or Diverge

Besides the Dollar, to my eye to most compelling divergence to equities we are seeing remains rates remaining stubbornly high. This flies directly in the face of bond bulls declaring an end of the bond bear market, as rates ought to be cratering if The Fed truly were done hiking rates in a disinflationary environment.  But as you can see on the...

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10Nov2:59 pmEST

We All Gotta Get Along

A Friday ramp is more than negating the selloff yesterday from a spike in rates, coupled with Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks. Bulls are returning to the playbook we have seen throughout this year, essentially, of jamming mega caps like Microsoft higher and semiconductors, overall (the latter of which saw a massive fade in yesterday's...

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