MarketChess
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15May10:01 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/15/22 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
13May10:01 amEST
A Series of Battles
Bear markets often feature a series of battles, even relatively shorter-term duration ones like 2008. We had bear market rallies from March-May 2008, then a pedestrian one over the summer, and even around the time Lehman failed and TARP was passed in September we had ridiculous, convincing squeezes which shocked and scared even the most...
12May11:29 amEST
The First Mover Fallacy in Game Theory
In 1923, Jesse Livermore wrote, “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth---or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” These eighths have cost traders billions of dollars over the years. Over the years, this is a lesson I have tried to learn over and...
11May2:56 pmEST
Reminder: It's a Bear Market, Which Means We Tend to Make New Lows
Part of the nefarious nature of bonafide bear markets (as defined by price below a declining 200-day moving average on the major indices for an extended duration , not the short-lived COVID crash which came and went in a matter of weeks) coming off an extended period of rampant speculative bull market fervor is that they lull even smart,...
11May10:30 amEST
And After All That...
By now, you know about ARKK, earnings blow-ups like U and UPST, inflation, even the Tiger Fund, as do most active market players. And what we are left with at the moment is some of the most violent price swings you will see even in a bear market, at least one which is not outright crashing. No, instead, we have an epic battle in progress, as...
10May3:07 pmEST
Crouching Tiger Fund, Hidden Systemic Risk
Tiger Global Management, a sizable hedge fund based out of New York and run by Chase Coleman, III., has been part of the buzz lately due to the drawdowns the fund has suffered. You can see their latest holdings here , which should shed light on how aggressively they are positioned into tech and growth stocks. Hence, due to the nature of the...
10May10:10 amEST
Lay of the Land
The major indices are recovering most or all of yesterday's drubbing after an overnight squeeze in the futures market. We will hear from President Biden later this morning on the hot button topic of inflation, which should be a market sensitive event leading up to tomorrow morning's CPI print. I am going to guess his speech writers will have...
09May2:38 pmEST
Not Every Safe Stock is Safe Here
With a Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio now over 3 (anything over 1 tends to turn off value investors), a forward PE in the 20s, and a multi-year chart which is as steep as the quarterly PEP seen below, you would be hard-pressed to make a sound case right now that Pepsico represents compelling value. Instead, the more likely bull case is that...
09May10:38 amEST
You Fell Victim to One of the Classic Blunders
Bear markets are notorious, in their relatively early stages, for creating a narrative as to why a certain bearish outcome simply cannot happen. Many market payers, due to prior conditioning of the bull market (especially this one) assume the former glory leaders like the "FAANG" gang will roar back to new highs as inflation recedes and growth...
07May10:51 amEST
It's OK to Be Wrong; It's Not OK to Stay Wrong
Cathie Wood said as recently as last week that her greatest fear right now is that her flailing stock holdings in the the ARKK funds would get bought out at (what she perceives) low prices. Retail investors continued to pour money into markets as recently as Thursday despite the wild price swings and lack of progress buyers have been...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
