Inflation and PE Ratios High While the Market's IQ is of a Mothball

07Mar10:56 amEST

It's Only a Paper Currency

… It's a Barnum and Bailey world Just as phony as it can be But it wouldn't be make-believe If you believed in me Watching Powell in front of Congress this morning drives home the notion that he still lacks the sort of urgency which is likely necessary to truly fight off inflation. And while the market overall in 2023 and even since last...

06Mar10:17 amEST

What Do You Want Me to Do, Learn to Stutter?

Joel Cairo: You always have a very smooth explanation ready. Sam Spade: What do you want me to do, learn to stutter? The Maltese Falcon (1941) It is another Fed-dominant week coming up in the markets, with Jay Powell in front of Congress Tuesday then Wednesday mornings, followed by jobless claims and the NFP on Thursday and Friday,...

05Mar9:15 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/05/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

03Mar10:06 amEST

It's Tough to Conquer Even Aging Empires

Bulls are feeling their oats again this morning, using the Bostic-led squeeze intraday yesterday afternoon to fuel a test of 4000 on the S&P 500 Index this morning. Rates on the 10-Year also dipped below 4% but are climbing back above that threshold as we speak. Without question, years and years of endless dip-buying being rewarded by easy...

02Mar10:53 amEST

It's the Rate of Rates That'll Give You the Blues

Eric Johnston and Katie Stockton, two of the sharper people on Wall Street these days, have been fairly steadily bearish on risk assets amid rising rates this cycle. But even they recently came out in CNBC interviews and seemed to be apprehensive about the idea of rates going much higher from here. But that's just it: The risk continues to be,...

01Mar10:52 amEST

It's Pretty; It's So Pretty

While equities toy with the 3940/3950 support zone on the S&P 500 Index, which of course coincides with the 200-day simple moving average, we have rates on the 10-Year Note hitting 4% once again this morning. Further, while the Dollar had a soft overnight session we have the greenback firming up as we speak. But turning back to rates, the...

28Feb11:06 amEST

Circus Price Discovery

In sports it is often said that a team eventually reflects its leader/coach in terms of personality, grit, temperament, or lack thereof. Perhaps the same can be said of markets and a given Fed Chair, especially given the prominent role of The Fed since the global financial crisis in 2008. With this in mind, markets sure seem to be reflecting...

27Feb3:17 pmEST

Poking, Probing, Backing, Filling...Burning!

Another gap up and eventual fade (so far into the final hour) is hallooing the mental toughness of just about every trader involved at this point. I specifically designed Market Chess Subscription Services as a reasonable alternative to the vast amount of services/chat rooms out there riding the emotional roller coaster of a market like this,...

26Feb8:52 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/26/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

24Feb10:44 amEST

Inflation and PE Ratios High While the Market's IQ is of a Mothball

A brief survey of the action this morning in the wake of the hot PCE print has bulls thinking it is yet another in a long line of, "What, me worry?!" dips to be bought. Indeed, if the 0DTE call options buyers step in with force and rip us back towards 4000 on the S&P 5000 Index (updated daily chart, below) by day's end it would not surprise too...